Braves 2021 Backfields Preview: Relief/Other Pitching
Backfields Preview is a positional breakdown of the Atlanta Braves system entering the 2021 season. Previous installments: Catchers, first base, middle infield, third base, outfield and starting pitching.
I’ll start by saying if you don’t see a name on the following list, it’s in the starting pitching post. I’ve written a few up as future relievers or with relief fallback like Kyle Muller, Bryse Wilson, Tucker Davidson and Huascar Ynoa, but I left them in the starting post because they’re still starting and have at least a chance to remain a starter to varying degrees.
The following names are tracking solidly as future relievers, whether they’re still starting or not. Remember this is not a knock on anyone; projecting a pitcher as a reliever is still projecting a major leaguer, which is something the vast majority of minor leaguers don’t accomplish. I’m happy to be wrong on any of their roles and hope they all develop into starters. Also keep in mind that actually developing a legitimate mid-rotation starting pitcher is a rarer accomplishment than many realize.
The pitching quantity approach to Atlanta’s rebuild, as I mentioned in the starting pitching post, is yielding a considerable number of young arms for the major league roster, 40-man roster and upper levels. Some have developed into rotation locks like Max Fried, Mike Soroka and Ian Anderson. Some are tracking as possible starters or high-end relievers like Ynoa and Wilson. Some will contribute to a major league bullpen in various roles. All of these roles have value. The rebuild was painful, but it has bore fruit in many ways. And now, there are other interesting arms behind them, albeit not at the same volume.
Graded:
Jasseel De La Cruz – 45
De La Cruz is an easy call as a future reliever. The command is below average and he doesn’t have a good grip on the firm changeup, leaving him with two explosive pitches between a boring fastball in the mid-to-upper-90s that rides and cuts, and a plus-potential slider that bites hard and late when tight. The arm action is long and violent, and he sprays the zone with velo more than locates. He has the makings of a fireballing late-innings reliever. Experience might be the only reason he’s not in the major league pen, because his stuff is already better than a lot of relievers on staff. If he still starts this season, it likely comes at Triple-A Gwinnett until he gets a call to the Braves bullpen. He should be a full-time reliever in the majors by 2022.
Victor Vodnik – 40
Vodnik will probably keep getting work as a starter into the upper levels to get more reps and work on his development. He tracks pretty solidly as a reliever in the majors, though, because of the size, effort and depth to stuff. His spring training performance was eye-opening for how the power changeup has developed into a real weapon, flashing plus and sitting above average with hard, deep sink. He pairs it with a lively fastball that sits mid-90s and touches higher in short bursts. The increased arm speed and power to the stuff has shortened the breaking ball to the point that the depth is below average and the tilt tends to sweep. Vodnik has a bulldog mentality and attacks hitters with high tempo, an approach suited for relief. He’s still only 21, so the Braves could start him at High-A Rome or push him to Double-A Mississippi.
Spencer Strider – 40
Strider is in a similar boat as Vodnik. He probably starts as he moves up, but the stuff and approach spell relief down the road. He has a solid combo between a lively fastball that rides and touches 99 and a downward breaker that flashes tight spin and hard bite. The changeup is known to flash and will likely be a focal point for development as he moves up. Perhaps big strides with it and improved feel to locate could put him more on the starter/reliever fence, but the easy fallback is relief. We’ll see what he has in his first full pro season. The Braves could send him anywhere from Mississippi to Low-A Augusta.
William Woods – 40
Woods went from relative unknown to a 40 overall and middle relief projection over the course of the lockdown. He filled out an impressive physical frame and is bumping 99 with at least plus arm speed and a long, fluid motion. I haven’t seen much in the breaking ball, but the changeup has potential based on firm, deep fade in the low-90s. He needs to gain further feel to turn it over and replicate the arm speed to avoid becoming a 90% fastball guy. Also, the fastball is straight and lacks effective ride from his three-quarters slot, so even at 99 it can be hittable on the plate. But Woods has done a tremendous job to pop up on his own and become a legitimate relief prospect. The Braves recognized that with the 2020 alternate site invite and 2021 spring invite. He likely gets pushed to Mississippi.
Daysbel Hernandez – 40
Hernandez didn’t do much this spring to garner more confidence in his ability to stick as an impact reliever. The stuff was fine, but he seemed to labor and struggled to locate at times. His effort-filled motion will produce a straight fastball up to 98 that tends to enter the zone on a hittable plane, so he has to change eye levels and spray around the zone. The slider is short but flashes hard, late bite. I have him a tick below guys like Vodnik, Strider and Woods as more of an up/down reliever. After spending all of 2019 performing at High-A, Hernandez needs to move quickly to stay on track. He probably spends most of 2021 at Mississippi but could see Gwinnett.
Tyler Owens – 35+
Owens could receive a higher grade and role once he’s on the field and I get better looks. The stuff is explosive at times, utilizing a very quick arm and tough angle to produce a lively fastball up to 98 and pairing with a power curve with solid tilt and tight spin. The changeup is well behind, he’s undersized and the delivery is full of effort, so relief seems like a good bet down the road even if he remains a starter for now, perhaps closer to middle or even late innings if his stuff holds in pro ball. He likely spends all of 2021 at Augusta.
System Depth:
Kasey Kalich – Talking Chop recently got the info on where Kalich is health-wise. Once he’s fully healthy and back to throwing heat, he’s a solid relief sleeper who could eventually begin to move quickly. He may go to Rome but could see Mississippi.
Thomas Burrows – This is the last year for Burrows on the list. He’s tracking as upper-level depth in the pen. He could carve out a Triple-A career or go elsewhere and try to earn a relief spot.
Kurt Hoekstra – Cool to see Hoekstra get a nod from the org with the spring invite. Converted from the infield with a lively fastball and a decent breaker, and a tremendous athlete on the mound, but feel is the issue. He’s now 27 and likely sticks at Gwinnett going forward.
Alec Barger – Arm-strength guy who has bumped mid-to-upper-90s. Could go to Rome.
Justin Yeager – Same as Barger.
Josh Graham – Graham gets one more nod here before being taken off the list. He’s 27 and is clearly org depth at this point. The fastball tends to be flat, but he turns over a solid changeup. He will go where he’s needed between Gwinnett and Mississippi.
Lisandro Santos – Sleeper left-handed reliever if he can get back on the mound. Has bumped mid-90s and flashes a usable slider. He should go to Rome or Augusta and move quickly if he performs.
Carter Linton – Post-draft sign in 2020. Undersized but a quick arm with stuff that pops. Curious to see what he looks like on a pro mound. He’s 22 so he could get pushed to Augusta.
Jake Higginbotham – The lost season hurt a lot. He’s already 25 now and is tracking as org depth. He still gets a nod because he bumped 96 from the left side with a decent breaker in 2019. He could go to Mississippi or Rome.
Mitch Stallings – Like Higginbotham, Stallings was hurt by the lost season and is now 25. He bumped 94 from a tough lefty angle and spun a slider that flashed above. He could go to Mississippi or Rome.
Luis Mora – Triple-digits fastball but 20-grade control and command. Lengthy frame with big extension but little grasp of his stuff. He’s now 25 and needs to get out of the lower levels.
Jose Montilla – Can hit 100 and keeps it around the zone, but he doesn’t miss a lot of bats. Could go to Rome.
Gabriel Rodriguez – We’ve been waiting on this dude for a while and always hear good things, but he hasn’t pitched since 2018. I have no idea what he looks like now or where he will be.
Roddery Munoz – Name is circled to see how he looks stateside. Apparently showed impact velo in the DSL. Could go to Augusta.
A.J. Puckett – Rule 5 minor league addition who has been through a lot and hasn’t been on the mound since 2017. Former second-rounder. Now healthy, the Braves want to see what he has in the tank. He will see Gwinnett or Mississippi or both.
Troy Bacon – Missed bats in High-A in 2019 but is falling behind and looking like org depth. He probably goes to Mississippi.
Coleman Huntley – Signed out of the NBC summer league last year. He’s 28, so I assume he has pop-up stuff, which could be fun. No idea what his assignment could be.
Trey Riley – I know nothing about where Riley is in his development at this point. He still gets a nod because the stuff has been good in the past and he’s an athlete. If he can get his career on track, he’s still a prospect. Something has to happen this year.
Positional Details:
40-Man: De La Cruz
Non-Roster Invitees: Burrows, Hernandez, Hoekstra, Vodnik, Woods
2021 ETA: De La Cruz
He got a call last year but didn’t pitch. It seems like a good bet that he makes his first appearance this season.
Top Tool: De La Cruz’s 60 fastball
There are plenty of strong fastballs and a few good secondaries here, but De La Cruz’s fastball has the best mix of velo, movement and effectiveness. He also has a plus-potential slider.
Breakout Candidate: Woods
There are several possibilities here. Vodnik could take a big step forward with his developed changeup. Strider could perform and put himself on the map. Owens could do the same in the lower levels. Same goes with Kalich. Woods gets the nod because he’s still relatively unknown industry-wide and could get a huge bump nationally if he performs over a full season with his newfound stuff.
2020 Top Transactions: Drafted and signed Strider, signed Linton, claimed Puckett, signed Huntley.
2020 Top Performance: Woods’s pop-up development is worthy of this call.