Braves 2021 Backfields Preview: Outfield
Backfields Preview is a positional breakdown of the Atlanta Braves system entering the 2021 season. Previous installments: Catchers, first base, middle infield and third base.
My introduction to last year’s outfield preview still largely stands:
“You don’t have to know much about Braves prospects to realize the system’s strengths are on the mound and in the outfield. While much is made of Atlanta’s pitching depth in the minors after several years of building up the system through arms, the organization is rich in outfield talent with the distinction of having two future solid everyday outfielders knocking on the door.
...Because prospects are prospects and you never know what will happen, the system depth at the outfield position is a valuable thing and could serve the team well.
...the Braves should be known for the development of their outfielders as much as what they’re doing on the mound.”
The apparent emergence of Michael Harris is only strengthening what was already a positive position for the Braves system. Harris still needs to get on the field and play a full pro season, but there is no denying the physical development and related increase in bat speed, spring performances and mountains of praise from everyone in the org. With Cristian Pache trying to lock down the center field job for the next decade and Drew Waters still laying in the weeds as a guy who flashes all five tools, another potential star prospect coming up behind them puts the Braves in an excellent spot for the outfield.
Of course, as I said, prospects are prospects. Pache still needs to hit enough to stay in the lineup every day. Waters needs to gain more comfort against upper-level pitching before becoming a major league option. Harris is 20 years old without a full season of pro ball.
There are questions that still need answering, but it’s obvious that the Braves organization is doing well in the outfield department.
Graded:
Cristian Pache – 60
Pache entered the 2021 season as 1a or 1b with Ian Anderson as Atlanta’s top prospect. We all know what he can do: At least 70 defense in center, 70 arm and present 70 run that may tick down to 60 with age. He’s a generational defender in center field. All he has to do is keep his head above water at the plate and he’s a perennial Gold Glove candidate for the next decade.
As his brief start to the season showed, keeping his head above water at the plate remains a work in progress. He has looked in between pitches at times, largely getting beat to spots and utilizing a less-than-efficient bat path that carried from spring training. I’ve been harping for a few weeks that he needs to simplify and get his hands inside the ball more instead of dropping the back side and pulling off for power. Maybe a trip to the injured list will allow him to reset mentally and focus on starting fresh.
Regardless of recent troubles, Pache has made big strides to shore up his mechanics at the plate and put himself in a position to hit enough to play every day. This is a good sign as he attempts to adjust to the highest level. It will likely take time and will include rough patches, but there is no pressure for Pache to hit anywhere near the top of the lineup. Just hit enough to stay in the lineup. I think he will.
Drew Waters – 55
There is concern about Waters’ ability to make enough contact to make the profile work. It’s understandable. I’ve said for a while that I think there is enough barrel ability to toe that line of aggression with high strikeouts but high contact with impact, similar to Starling Marte. What he did at Double-A a couple years ago should not be ignored. He just needs to gain more comfort against upper-level pitching, which is why a lost 2020 hurt him. A full, healthy season against advanced pitching should get him back on track as a potential above-average everyday outfielder as soon as 2022. He should spend most of this season at Triple-A Gwinnett.
Michael Harris – 40+
Again, I realize this grade looks extremely low. It’s this way to signal that I need to see him in person and get a full account of what he can do on a pro field. I got a poor look in 2019 probably based on fatigue after the draft. He’s clearly physically advanced compared to a couple years ago and is looking more explosive. He’s carrying the pop to the opposite field now and is showing solid bat speed on a more consistent basis, although there remains the occasional settled contact. The swing is a bit deep, but he shows traits of a natural hitter with fluidity and great hands to make contact around the zone. He profiles as a solid corner outfielder who can play center when needed and has a cannon arm. I’ve been guessing that Harris will start at High-A Rome and the Braves will let him perform his way up the ladder.
Jesse Franklin – 40
If Franklin ends up moving off center, left field is his future home because of the arm. That would put max pressure on his bat to develop. The swing is a bit long and leveraged, but he has solid pull-side power and possesses the raw to produce gap to gap with impact. There is a lot to like here with an across-the-board package of tools with athleticism. He has to prove he can hit enough to avoid the tweener role of low-OBP, good-pop corner outfielder, but he has a floor. He’s 22 with alternate site and instructs experience, so I’m guessing he starts at either Double-A Mississippi or Rome. He may see both in 2021.
Trey Harris – 40
Harris was under the radar this spring but looked really good for a guy who got zero alternate site time last year. The bat speed is legitimately among the best in the system, and there’s excellent impact in the barrel. Still, the pop doesn’t carry like one might expect, and he lacks outfield versatility and value. He still has a chance as a bench or second-division platoon partner. He may be better off in another org to get that opportunity. He likely plays most if not all of this season at Gwinnett.
Greyson Jenista – 40
The org had to work with a limited number of players in spring camp, but it seemed telling that Jenista was the highest-graded player not invited to the major league side. He also didn’t get an alternate site invite last year. I wrote last year that Jenista was on the verge of toeing that career Triple-A line, and it seems like he could be headed for that path. The ability to make enough solid contact to utilize his raw power has always been the question. He’s a good athlete for his size and can play multiple positions. Perhaps a different org could give him an opportunity in a bench role. For now, Jenista likely plays at Gwinnett or Mississippi.
Stephen Paolini – 40
Paolini is your perfect case of a kid with lots of raw tools who needs to get on a pro field and see what he can do over the course of a full season. He has developed good upper-body strength and has made tweaks to leverage the swing and better utilize developing pop. If he can shoot the gaps with consistency, that would create a tantalizing combination with good speed and athleticism. Reps this year will determine how good he is in center. This one is a true wild card as an up-the-middle talent with raw tools but little exposure. If he keeps his head above water, he will spend all of 2021 at Low-A Augusta.
System Depth:
Justin Dean – It is telling that Dean received a spring invite. The Braves seemed to reward his 2019 play and the ultra-aggressive center field defense and plus-plus speed. He’s an exciting player to watch in center and on the basepaths. The bat, however, is a bit light, and he projects as a fourth outfielder or up/down player. He could see either Mississippi or Rome, or both.
Kadon Morton – One of the many overslot fliers from 2019. Morton has a power profile with tools and could pop up this year. He will either stay back on the spring complex or go to Augusta.
Jefrey Ramos – Ramos is falling behind on the system depth chart. He has excellent power but a lot of swing-and-miss. He’s tracking as upper-level depth. He will go where he’s needed, either Mississippi or Rome.
Brandon Parker – JUCO performer with loud offensive tools who likely plays a corner. Need to see what he can do in A-ball.
Ethan Workinger – Post-draft JUCO sign in 2020. Name circled to see what he can do in pro ball.
Willie Carter – Deep find in 2019 draft. Big bat speed with some carrying power.
Jacob Pearson – Former third-rounder and Rule 5 minor league addition with some tools. It’ll be interesting to see what he shows in his new org.
Positional Details:
40-Man: Pache
Non-Roster Invitees: Waters, M. Harris, T. Harris, Dean
2021 ETA: Waters
If Waters performs, he could get a call late in the season as a reward and to get some major league experience.
Top Tool: Pache’s 70 glove
This may end up being low, which says all you need to know about his center field defense.
Breakout Candidate: Michael Harris
This one seems obvious.
2020 Top Transactions: Pache made MLB debut, drafted and signed Franklin, invited Michael Harris to alternate site, signed Workinger.
2020 Top Performance: Pache doubled, homered, walked three times and drove in four in the 2020 playoffs.