Braves 2021 Backfields Preview: First Base
Backfields Preview is a positional breakdown of the Atlanta Braves system entering the 2021 season. The first installment was catchers.
I’ll start by repeating what I wrote about first base entering the 2020 season: “First base isn’t exactly a position you turn to for your higher-ranked, impact prospects. It’s forever a difficult profile to develop. Tools and athleticism play, hence the importance of having guys stick up the middle. First basemen usually require their hit and power tools to max out to carry the value, and that’s not an easy thing to do when you’re often working with fringe bat speed or athleticism.
The position typically has the fewest top 100 prospects along with left fielders. You just don’t see that many guys who are first basemen from the start turn into impact major leaguers. It’s more common to have players move off their natural position to play first out of necessity. The same applies to left field.”
A year later, nothing has changed here. Bryce Ball is the rare exception of a legitimate first base prospect out of the draft, one who has the makings of an everyday slugger without the “ifs” of fringe bat speed or extreme swing-and-miss. He still has to prove himself against upper-level pitching, but he’s a different breed and I’m all in.
Mahki Backstrom has bat speed and athleticism you don’t typically see from first base prospects. The framework is there to be a legitimate prospect going forward. But there’s no way of knowing how he will respond to pro pitching until he’s on the field. I’m waiting for an on-field look before writing his report.
The Braves added a couple post-draft signings and I will include them. They fit the mold of that below-slot college corner profile that usually becomes system depth.
Graded:
Bryce Ball – 45+
The Braves obviously like what they have here, because they keep challenging him with difficult matchups and opportunities in spring training. He was an early player pool addition last year despite being a 24th-round pick.
I’ve been sold on Ball since a Rome look in 2019. Everyone knows by now about the plus-plus raw power, immense size and easy carry to his all-fields power. The difference for Ball compared to fringe first base prospects is a feel to hit. He tracks the ball well, he shows a feel to manipulate the bat head for contact in all quadrants, and he has enough bat speed to get out in front against inside velo. He’s happy to shorten up and take a lined shot the other way, but then the next at-bat he may carry one to deep right-center. You don’t see that in young first base sluggers.
Ball does still need to get more aggressive in his swings at times. He tends to settle for contact a little too much, resulting in ground balls to shortstop or similar weak contact. He appeared to make strides with this in 2021 spring training by showing more aggressive swings and attempting to turn on velo better. He faced some very difficult matchups for his age and experience, and he battled hard in all of them.
Assuming Freddie Freeman hangs around and Ball develops like I think he can, it could be a situation where DH is a revolving door between a few guys, with Ball getting occasional time at first base. He’s getting better there, but it’s doubtful he will be more than fringe-average. For now, Ball’s focus should be on proving himself against better pro pitching and hitting his way to Double-A Mississippi. A season of performance could increase his overall grade a good bit.
System Depth:
Mahki Backstrom – He will probably get his own graded report early in 2021. I just need to see him on the field and see how he handles full-season pitching. The swing has gotten better and he profiles as a raw slugger with bat speed and athleticism. He likely plays a full season at Low-A Augusta.
Bryson Horne – Undrafted free agent after the shortened 2020 draft out of Columbus State. He’s the typical big-bodied, left-handed-hitting first baseman out of college who will probably perform in the lower levels and become depth down the road. It should be fun watching him hit some big homers. He may stay back at the spring complex or go to Augusta.
Landon Stephens – Another post-draft sign. Big frame with present strength out of Miami (Ohio). Same situation as Horne. One of them could skip Augusta and go to High-A Rome.
Note: C.J. Alexander and Greyson Jenista are still considered prospects on my list and have received playing time at first base, but I will keep them at their natural positions for the sake of this series. Drew Lugbauer received a nod last year, but I’ve removed him from consideration.
Positional Details:
40-Man: None
Non-Roster Invitees: Ball
2021 ETA: None
Top Tool: Ball’s 70 raw power
As I wrote last year, Ball is a 6-foot-6 dinger-hitting machine with easy, arcing tanks in BP.
Breakout Candidate: Ball
Ball is still the answer here because he hasn’t had the chance to break out yet. A full season of performance could put him on the map nationally. Backstrom could also break out in his first full season if he handles pro pitching, but I see it as more of a learning experience for him.
2020 Top Transactions: Invited Ball to spring training, signed Horne and Stephens, released Braxton Davidson.
2020 Top Performances: N/A