Braves 2021 Backfields Preview: Starting Pitching
Backfields Preview is a positional breakdown of the Atlanta Braves system entering the 2021 season. Previous installments: Catchers, first base, middle infield, third base and outfield.
The pitching quantity approach to Atlanta’s rebuild is starting to produce results at the major league level.
Ian Anderson is a rotation lock, Mike Soroka and Max Fried are frontline starters when healthy, Bryse Wilson and Huascar Ynoa are contributing in different ways, Touki Toussaint and Sean Newcomb are potentially solid major league relievers, and Kyle Wright has flashed frontline stuff and is a major leaguer in some form.
Just behind them, Tucker Davidson, Kyle Muller and Jasseel De La Cruz have major league arms in some form.
Some appeared to be up in arms last year about player development’s ability to produce starting pitching. It’s silly when you sit back, take a breath and realize the kind of high-end talent the system has produced recently. And even beyond Anderson, Soroka and Fried, there are many potential relievers who could make an impact for years.
It’s tough to maintain such a high level of talent top to bottom in the system year after year. The Braves still have solid pitching prospects in the upper levels and a few intriguing arms just behind them. The lower levels? There are sleepers, but lower draft picks and the inability to be an international market player have hurt the starting depth at younger ages. We will have a better idea of what kind of talent the Braves may have below Double-A once everyone is on the field again.
Note that several current starters will not be listed here. Monday’s post will include all remaining pitchers who are graded as prospects. I have them as future relievers regardless of their current role. Part of it is related to future role, part of it is simply breaking it up into more readable posts.
Graded:
Ian Anderson – 60
There’s not much left to say about Anderson. The only debate is whether he’s closer to a frontline starter or a mid-rotation guy. Some are all in on the 2020 performance and see a fringe frontline starter, which would be closer to a 70 overall grade. I’m not there, because I think the stuff is still limited just enough to keep him closer to a high mid-rotation type and 60 overall with flashes of frontline performance. He will take his lumps at times this season, especially as home run regression hits, but at the end of the day he’s a rotation lock and should provide valuable starter innings for a long time. This was a tremendous draft pick and developmental job by Anderson and the Braves.
Kyle Muller – 50
Muller is likely a reliever in the future based on below-average command. The stuff has wipeout ability and the mound presence is imposing. He has three legitimate major league pitches, including a fastball that hits triple digits from the left side with angle and a wipeout breaking ball. Command has never been on his side, and while he’s made strides to shore up his mechanics and improve tempo, he’s still best suited in the bullpen down the road. He’s a 50 because there is true late-innings potential here. That’s a very high reliever grade. He should spend most if not all of 2021 at Triple-A Gwinnett.
Bryse Wilson – 50
Wilson’s role continues to be tough to peg. I’m confident in saying I don’t see a traditional six-inning starter. The stuff isn’t consistently deep enough to turn over a major league lineup three times every five days. However, he’s improved his arsenal by utilizing the two-seamer off the four-seam as a change of pace and improving the feel of his slider. It’s still technically two pitches, but he’s showing signs of becoming more vertical and showing a feel to pair the fastballs effectively. This development could help him reach a role of fifth starter who gets through the lineup twice or a hybrid role of fifth starter/multi-inning reliever, sort of what he’s done so far. Either way, he’s a major leaguer and can provide valuable innings.
Tucker Davidson – 45+
I hate using the classic escape route of “back-end starter or late-inning reliever,” but that’s where I continue to place Davidson. He’s made tremendous strides to become a legitimate starter prospect by improving his mechanics and deepening his arsenal with the slider. Command and overall utility of the stuff remain in question and will determine whether he’s a 4 or a reliever. The stuff is there. If he has enough feel to get to his stuff every five days, he can hit that 4 spot. The backup plan seems pretty certain as a high middle to late-innings reliever where he can let the fastball fly and rip off devastating curves and sliders. He has already been an emergency call-up for the Braves this year and may continue to serve in that role, but most of his innings will come at Gwinnett.
Jared Shuster – 45+
Banking on a late uptick in velo and stuff is always a tricky call when drafting pitchers. Shuster’s stuff hit another level before the draft by ramping up to 95 and touching 97, combined with a much sharper breaking ball and a changeup I’ve graded as higher than Anderson’s. He has to prove it’s real, though, and that requires a full season of performance. If it is real, he’s a 4. The backup plan is relief where he can pair the fastball and changeup as a good lefty out of the pen. His innings this season should come at Double-A Mississippi or High-A Rome.
Bryce Elder – 45+
I continue to be higher on Elder than most because of the floor. The fastball is not eye-opening, sitting low-90s and relying on sink and command. That can spell trouble at times and limit the ceiling as a starter. He pairs it with a plus-potential slider, one of the best in the draft class, and he mixes in curves and changeups, one of which needs to develop further to round out the arsenal. If the stuff deepens and the fastball plays, he’s a 4. But he has a very easy floor as a usable reliever with the fastball and slider combo. People should give him more attention for that reason. His innings should come at Rome with the potential to move up.
Huascar Ynoa – 40
I’ve kept Ynoa on the prospect list because 1) it’s my newsletter and I can do whatever I want and 2) I keep prospects on the list for content purposes, not restricting myself to innings or AB limits. If I still have something more to say on a prospect, like Ynoa, I’ll keep them on. I wrote this about Ynoa during spring training to sum up his recent mechanical changes and how he’s approaching his outings. I summed it up by saying I still don’t see a traditional starter because of command and the third pitch. However, if he’s as explosive with his two pitches as he’s been in recent starts, and he effectively mixes in the changeup at times, it could be a different story. It’s a long road to go from calling a guy a reliever to a starter, and I’m still not there with Ynoa, but he is flashing starter traits. I don’t think the book is closed on his role yet.
Freddy Tarnok – 40
Tarnok is developing well physically by filling out his long, projectable frame and adding strength. His arm speed has increased and he’s pumping upper-90s in bullpens. Added strength is good, because he needs to prove he can handle a starter’s workload without varying velo and injured list stints. Tarnok also needs to prove he can get to all three pitches every time out and command them on a consistent basis. But the stuff is there, and he has a major league arm between a mid-rotation ceiling and high middle relief. This season will be a huge test for him and could answer some of these questions. He should spend the entire season at Mississippi.
Ricky DeVito – 35+
DeVito is a name to circle to see what he has in 2021. The stuff played up after the draft by hitting mid-90s along with a changeup that flashes above and a usable curveball. He’s a good athlete with some feel to pitch who has seen an uptick in stuff, so it’s worth keeping an eye out. He may be in Rome this year.
System Depth:
Jared Johnson – Overslot arm strength type up to 99 recently. Big frame with present strength and velo. 2021 sleeper who could put his name on the map. He will probably be in Low-A Augusta.
Joey Estes – Overslot 16th-rounder who got an instructs invite. Interesting arm to keep an eye on. The org likes him. He will probably join Johnson in Augusta.
Nolan Kingham – Pitchability type with fringe stuff but good command. Upper-level depth type of career in the future. He may spend the year at Mississippi or get time in Gwinnett.
Positional Details:
40-Man: Anderson, Muller, Wilson, Davidson, Ynoa
Non-Roster Invitees: Tarnok, Kingham
2021 ETA: Muller
Muller could get a late-season call if he performs well at Gwinnett, or it could happen sooner if the Braves get pummeled by injuries.
Top Tool: Shuster’s 70 changeup
I’m definitely the high person on Shuster’s changeup. The pitch is disgusting when he turns it over and replicates the arm speed. Muller’s fastball flashes 70, but command limits the grade’s consistency.
Breakout Candidate: DeVito
There have been some whispers that DeVito could be a name to remember for 2021. If the stuff is legit and he maintains it over a full season, he could rise in the rankings. Johnson is one of the biggest sleepers in the lower levels along with Estes.
2020 Top Transactions: Drafted and signed Shuster and Elder, Anderson and Davidson made MLB debuts.
2020 Top Performance: Anderson recorded a 1.95 ERA with 41 strikeouts to 14 walks in the first six starts of his MLB career. He gave up just two runs with 24 strikeouts in 18.2 postseason innings.