Backfields Preview: Relief Pitching
Editor’s Note: With the suspension of spring training, I’m no longer able to evaluate players on backfields during spring camp. Also, the delay of Minor League Baseball’s regular season means in-person evaluations are on hold until the season begins. I still plan to provide content three days a week, including spring observations, scouting reports and more. I’ll re-evaluate the content plan when more is known regarding the minor league regular season schedule. For now, hopefully my work will help fill a little bit of the void and take your mind off things for even a few minutes.
Backfields Preview is a positional breakdown of the Atlanta Braves system entering the 2020 season. Previous installments are catchers, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, outfield and starting pitching.
As I mentioned in the starting pitching installment of this series, the Braves are loaded in the pitching department. Although the top two prospects are outfielders, the system is built on arms and has the depth to deal with the inevitable rollercoaster ride of pitching prospect development.
Pitchers who have major league stuff but can’t turn over a lineup multiple times because of either command or lack of pitch mix find their way to bullpens. It’s a fact of baseball life that many starting pitching prospects won’t be rotation pieces in the majors. That applies in Atlanta’s case, because there are quite a few current starters better suited for short stints as they reach the majors.
Kyle Muller, Bryse Wilson and Tucker Davidson have late-innings relief as fallback plans, but all three still have rotation hopes for now. Everyone else listed below is tracking toward relief. Relievers grow on trees, but this is an impressive list of talent that shows how deep the system is with pitching.
Graded:
Jasseel De La Cruz - 45
De La Cruz offers some of the liveliest stuff and quickest arm speed in the system. He’s up to 99 from a plus arm, paired with a plus-potential slider that has hard, late bite when spun well. His changeup is well behind and his command is below average, not to mention there’s effort in the delivery and a long, inconsistent arm path, so he’s better suited for relief. That transition should happen soon. He’s still starting, so he gets a spot in that list while also getting a nod in the relief list. De La Cruz will probably spend the year starting or transitioning to relief at Triple-A Gwinnett with a call-up possible as a reliever.
Patrick Weigel - 40
Weigel is what he is at this point. He needed to prove his health and that his stuff was back, and he’s done both. His fastball still gets into the mid-90s with downward plane and life. He has a deep mix of secondaries that all at least flash major league quality, led by a downward-breaking curve with snap and plus depth, and a shorter slider with solid bite. Perhaps Weigel gets the chance to start again in other organizations, but he seems best suited for at least high middle relief at this point, and there’s no reason why it can’t happen right now. He could earn a bullpen spot out of spring training or go to Gwinnett’s pen and wait for a call.
Victor Vodnik - 40
Vodnik may get more starts as the Braves ramp up his workload, but he’s tracking toward middle relief. He has the stuff and mentality to make it happen. He has a feel to manipulate his fastball and locate it to all four quadrants with varying movement and mid-90s velocity, touching 97. He pairs with a potential above-average curveball that flashes plus depth and bite. His changeup is behind the other two and he lacks height and perhaps the durability for a starter’s workload, so it would suit him well to use his bulldog mentality in a relief role. He’s destined for Class-A Advanced Florida.
Huascar Ynoa - 40
Ynoa’s stuff flashes as high as late-innings quality between a plus fastball with big velocity and a sharp slider that flashes plus with tilt and two-plane break. He’s a bit underrated as a potential major league reliever because of these qualities. He does need to show he can command his big stuff more consistently, but working in shorter stints and a clearer role could help. He should transition to full-time relief at Gwinnett and wait for a call.
Jeremy Walker - 40
This is your typical middle relief profile. Walker made the transition to relief that allowed his above-average, two-pitch mix to play up. He throws a heavy fastball into the mid-90s along with an average curve that flashes higher. He improved his command and control with the move to relief and has put himself on the map as a major league option. He’ll throw out of Gwinnett’s bullpen and wait for a call.
Daysbel Hernandez - 40
Hernandez is the typical relief prospect with a big fastball up to 98 and a short but hard-biting slider that projects average to above. He has a couple factors working against him that placed him below similar grade profiles like Ynoa and Walker, namely command and a lack of plane on the fastball. A season in Double-A Mississippi’s bullpen will be a test for both and will help determine where he truly sits as a prospect.
Phil Pfeifer - 35+
Pfeifer has a tremendous story as a person who’s been through a lot and was almost out of the game before remaking himself, finding sharper stuff and earning a 40-man roster spot. His stuff won’t blow anyone away, sitting low-90s and ramping up 95-96, but he keeps hitters honest by coming from a tough angle and heavily utilizing an above-average curve that flashes higher. He’s now an up/down option for the Braves as a lefty capable of throwing multiple innings or in various situations. He’ll throw out of Gwinnett’s bullpen and wait for a call.
Tyler Owens - 35+
Owens is currently starting but shows clear relief tendencies. He lacks height and consistent command, but he has plus arm speed and a solid fastball/curve mix that he can ride to the upper levels. If he maintains his mid-90s velocity and throws strikes, Owens can move up lists as a potential major league reliever. He should start at Low-A Rome.
System Depth:
- Kasey Kalich – Mid-90s arm in short stints and has true relief potential. Kalich could get graded soon if he develops further. He likely begins at Florida but could see Mississippi quickly.
- Thomas Burrows – Burrows is falling behind within the org. Getting passed over for a 40-man spot and in the Rule 5 draft is an indicator. He hasn’t shown impact stuff in the upper levels and is close to losing prospect status. He’ll probably bounce between Gwinnett and Mississippi.
- Jake Higginbotham – He’s lost in the mix but is up to 96 from the left side and spins a decent breaker. He could be sleeper relief potential if the Braves move him more quickly. He could see Florida and Mississippi this year.
- Mitch Stallings – Stallings is a 30th-round sleeper who bumps 94 from the left side as a starter and flashes an above-average slider. Could be a little intriguing if his stuff plays up in relief. He needs to at least be in Florida if not Mississippi.
- Josh Graham – Graham has a hard fastball and excellent changeup, but his stuff lacks hop and he’s getting passed over within the org. He’s on the verge of a Triple-A career and could benefit from a change in org. He could bounce between Gwinnett and Mississippi.
- Luis Mora – Big kid with a 100 mph fastball but little else. He’s extremely raw with long limbs and little idea of where the ball is going. If he can harness the triple-digit heat, he’s a graded relief prospect. He might as well go to Florida.
- Lisandro Santos – Santos needs to catch up. He has the stuff to do so, bumping mid-90s and flashing a usable slider from the left side. He’s a sleeper lefty if he finds a groove at Low-A Rome.
- Alec Barger – Barger is an arm-strength type whose stuff could play up in relief. He probably starts at Rome.
- Justin Yeager – Another arm-strength type who needs to get tested in full-season ball to truly see what he has. He should pitch out of Rome’s bullpen.
- Kurt Hoekstra – Hoekstra is getting more attention than someone in his situation normally would, because he converted to the mound and saw success. He hits mid-90s with a decent breaker and quick arm. He needs a dominant season at Gwinnett or Mississippi to have a chance.
- Jose Montilla – Huge fastball and big arm strength but lacks bat-missing secondary. He’ll throw out of Florida’s bullpen.
- Troy Bacon – Flashes good stuff but likely a depth reliever at this point. He should see Mississippi.
- Odalvi Javier – Hits mid-90s and stuff and command could play up in short stints. Still, likely a depth starter or reliever. He may return to Florida.
40-Man: De La Cruz, Weigel, Ynoa, Walker, Pfeifer
Non-Roster Invitees: Burrows, Hoekstra
2020 ETA: De La Cruz, Weigel, Pfeifer
Weigel has already been promoted to the majors but hasn’t appeared. He’s the strongest possibility on this list, perhaps as soon as opening day. De La Cruz and Pfeifer could get a call at any time, especially if they perform well early at Gwinnett.
Top Tool: De La Cruz’s 60 fastball
There are plenty of blistering fastballs on this list, some grading as plus potential, some hitting triple digits but lacking control. De La Cruz’s perhaps has the most life coming from a supremely quick arm, and he shows at least some ability to locate it. Among secondaries, De La Cruz has a plus-potential slider. Weigel’s two breaking balls flash plus, as does Pfeifer’s curveball.
Breakout Candidates: Owens and Kalich
Both have the stuff to perform and move through the system pretty quickly, especially with Kalich already in relief. Owens should perform well in the lower levels if he throws enough strikes.
2019 Top Transactions: Assigned Weigel to Gwinnett, put Pfeifer on 40-man roster.
2019 Top Performances: Walker recorded a 2.45 ERA with five walks to 57 strikeouts in 58.2 innings at Mississippi. Pfeifer logged a 3.23 ERA with 23 walks to 110 strikeouts in 92 innings at Florida.