Backfields Preview: Braves Having A Ball At First Base
Backfields Preview is a positional breakdown of the Atlanta Braves system entering the 2020 season. The first installment was catchers.
First base isn’t exactly a position you turn to for your higher-ranked, impact prospects. It’s forever a difficult profile to develop. Tools and athleticism play, hence the importance of having guys stick up the middle. First basemen usually require their hit and power tools to max out to carry the value, and that’s not an easy thing to do when you’re often working with fringe bat speed or athleticism.
The position typically has the fewest top 100 prospects along with left fielders. You just don’t see that many guys who are first basemen from the start turn into impact major leaguers. It’s more common to have players move off their natural position to play first out of necessity. The same applies to left field.
Therefore, the position is understandably thin in the Braves system. There are a few first base-only profiles worthy of mention, including two younger ones at the lower levels who have garnered a lot of excitement, while a couple more are included because they’re graded prospects with first base experience.
Graded:
Bryce Ball - 45+
I’m going to be candid about this one. I’ll start by saying I’m in on Ball. If you follow my work, you know that I’ve been extremely high on him since my first look at Rome out of the draft. I’ve also never been in on a first base prospect before, so I have no clue what I’m doing. Hence the 45+ overall.
Ball has plus-plus raw power, probably the most in the system next to Alex Jackson. That was evident after a couple rounds of batting practice at Rome. The more difficult evaluation for a first baseman is the hit tool, and it’s usually the death sentence. Ball isn’t your typical slugging first baseman, though, and that’s why I’m so high on him. He shows a feel to hit by covering the plate, working the field and adjusting in-pitch. He’s a massive dude with iffy wrist action, but it’s not a grooved swing susceptible to sequencing. There’s a feel for the barrel that leads to consistent contact. He also has solid bat speed for his size and profile, so much that I’d grade it solid average to above average. There’s average hit potential here, which means that 70 raw has the chance to translate to at least above-average to plus in-game power.
Ball’s defense is a significant work in progress. He’s not an agile guy and he’s robotic at first. The hands tend to get hard, too. It’s possible he develops enough to be serviceable there, which is all you need if you slug. It’s also possible that he’s best suited as a designated hitter.
I honestly need another full season of looks before feeling confident with an overall grade. Chalk that up to the difficulty of evaluating a first base prospect. There are traits here that lead me to say he’s a potential starting first baseman with big power and at least serviceable on-base skills. He should start at Class-A Advanced Florida and could move quickly. The 2020 season will tell a lot.
C.J. Alexander - 40
Alexander is a corner player all the way, so he gets a nod here as a 3B/1B type. His defense has developed enough at third to think he could mostly play there in the upper levels, but it only helps his value to have experience at first.
The 23-year-old had a lost season in 2019 because of tough-luck injuries. Otherwise, he could be knocking on the door as a corner platoon or bench type. This is still a possibility for him, but the lost year means he needs to catch up and have a productive 2020 to the point that he reaches Triple-A Gwinnett. He’s a fringe hitter with above-average raw power, decent speed and glove, and a plus arm. The future here remains a possible corner platoon or bench bat, or upper-level depth if the bat doesn’t fully bounce back. He likely returns to Double-A Mississippi.
Greyson Jenista - 40
Like Alexander, Jenista gets a mention for his first base experience, including a dozen games there in the Arizona Fall League. He’s a solid athlete for his size and frame, so he’d probably pick up the position quickly if he saw more time there. His corner outfield defense has been spotty at times, so the extra position could help.
Jenista is in that sink-or-swim territory as a 23-year-old, below-average hitter with big raw power. The raw hasn’t translated in-game because of swing and miss and mechanical inconsistencies. He started to show glimpses of development in the second half at Mississippi, and he absolutely has to continue that this season if he wants to remain a prospect. There’s still a shot as a bench bat, but it’s looking more likely to be an up/down or upper-level depth type of profile.
System Depth:
- Mahki Backstrom – There’s a very likely possibility that Backstrom is a graded prospect soon. He remains on the depth list right now because of a lack of looks and pro exposure. This is why my pref list (coming first week of March) will be constantly updated. Backstrom is a huge, athletic kid with big natural strength, a very quick bat for his size, and is currently very raw. There’s intrigue here.
- Braxton Davidson – Has immense power and a 20 hit tool. He’s approaching non-prospect status.
- Drew Lugbauer – He’s starting to follow the Davidson path.
40-Man: None
Non-Roster Invitees: Ball
2020 ETA: None
Alexander and Jenista are on the outside looking in when it comes to a 40-man spot, but they’re still prospects. A significant step forward could put them back on the map toward a possible 2021 date.
Top Tool: Ball’s 70 raw power
It’s funny that the first two installments in this series feature the two biggest raw power tools in the system between Ball and Jackson’s 70. Ball is a 6-foot-6 dinger-hitting machine with easy, arcing tanks in BP.
Breakout Candidate: Ball
It would not be a surprise if Ball moves quickly and puts himself on the national map as one of the top first base prospects in the game.
2019 Top Transactions: Drafted and signed Ball, assigned Jenista to Mississippi, drafted and signed Backstrom.
2019 Top Performance: Ball combined to hit .329/.395/.628 with 17 home runs in 62 games between Danville and Rome in his first taste of pro ball.