Backfields Preview: Starting Pitching
Backfields Preview is a positional breakdown of the Atlanta Braves system entering the 2020 season. Previous installments are catchers, first base, second base, third base, shortstop and outfield.
The Braves have been known for developing pitching for years. As I mentioned in Monday’s outfield post, they should perhaps be just as known for their current outfielder development, but it’s a nice problem to have when you’re producing notable talent in multiple areas. There’s plenty of it on the mound in this system, and it’s knocking on the door.
Kyle Wright and Ian Anderson are the clear front-runners when it comes to pitching prospects in the org. Both have mid-rotation upside, Wright’s a little higher than Anderson’s, and to have two at Triple-A with that kind of upside is very valuable. While Kyle Muller, Bryse Wilson and Tucker Davidson don’t have the same kind of rotation certainty, they all have major league stuff and are on the verge of graduating. The org has so much major league potential talent at the highest level of the minors that finding rotation spots for everybody could be a challenge.
More names could technically be added to this list because more are still starting, but you’ll see in Friday’s reliever post that I’m already separating many of the clear relief futures now. Separating them shows that the lower levels are significantly weaker when it comes to potential starters. The Braves need to land on some of this upper-level talent as rotation pieces. Numbers are on their side.
Graded:
Kyle Wright - 55
Wright has lost some prospect steam after rough major league outings and more inconsistent command last year. I remain on him as the top Braves pitching prospect for having the highest ceiling (No. 2 type) and a deep array of major league pitches, including a plus-potential fastball and slider. He has one of the deepest repertoires of above-average-or-better pitches in the minor leagues and the frame and delivery to eat innings. It comes down to shaping his fastballs to play off the slider better, and commanding all of it at a higher level. What he’s done this spring is what he’s capable of when things click. If it clicks, he’s a high mid-rotation starter for a long time. If it doesn’t, he’s an impact reliever. I’m betting on the former. If he doesn’t earn a rotation spot out of spring training, he should spend the majority of the season at Triple-A Gwinnett instead of bouncing back and forth.
Ian Anderson - 55
Wright has the deep arsenal of lively pitches, but Anderson has the better command and less variance. He’s tracking as a low mid-rotation starter, such as a low 3 or high 4, and it could happen as soon as spring 2021. Anderson’s fastball doesn’t pop like Wright’s, but he comfortably works low-90s and ramps up 95-96 when he needs it, with the ability to locate well. He needs that command to keep hitters off it, but it also plays well enough because of the angle, and his above-average-potential curveball and changeup work well with it. Anderson deserves a lot of credit for developing like he has, because there’s a ton of risk in drafting prep right-handers high. He likely spends the year at Gwinnett with the chance to earn a rotation spot next spring.
Kyle Muller - 50
I wrote in my Pref List that Muller is starting to track like Sean Newcomb. The stuff is there to start, but his command may ultimately push him to the bullpen. Similar to Newcomb, Muller may go back and forth before settling into a permanent role. Also like Newcomb, Muller will impact the pitching staff no matter his long-term role, because his stuff is that good. He has a lively fastball in the mid-to-upper-90s with big plane and extension, paired with an above-average-potential curve and change. The secondaries may play down because of command, but the entire arsenal jumps from the hand, and he has an imposing mound presence with huge height and length. If he harnesses his stuff, Muller is a dynamic 4. If his command stays like it is now, he’s a dynamic reliever. He likely spends the season starting at Gwinnett.
Bryse Wilson - 50
Wilson has the command and fastball to start, but his secondaries haven’t developed enough yet to keep hitters off the heat. He’s working to develop his cutter further as that option, but results have been hit or miss so far, and his slider and changeup remain average. Wilson certainly has a major league future because of a plus fastball that he locates well, and he has the mentality to live at the highest level. Because of the lack of a bat-missing secondary, he’s tracking toward relief, which would suit him well as a late-innings guy. He’ll continue starting at Gwinnett and could get a couple call-ups as a spot starter or reliever, but his ultimate role may be sorted out for him by this time next year.
Tucker Davidson - 45
It’s not out of the question that Davidson catches up to Muller and Wilson, possibly even passing one or both. He’s trending upward as a possible long-term starter thanks to more lively stuff, especially a fastball now hitting mid-90s with pop and ride. He’s always had the curve and can keep hitters off-balance with flashes of a slider and changeup, although they still need further development. He also needs to learn to harness his more lively stuff, so it’s not a guaranteed starter profile yet. But Davidson has made tremendous strides to turn himself into a potential rotation piece, perhaps a low 4, with the fallback option of relief. He’ll spend the year at Gwinnett with a possible call-up as a spot starter or reliever.
Jasseel De La Cruz - 45
De La Cruz offers some of the liveliest stuff and quickest arm speed in the system. He’s up to 99 from a plus arm, paired with a plus-potential slider that has hard, late bite when spun well. His changeup is well behind and his command is below average, not to mention there’s effort in the delivery and a long, inconsistent arm path, so he’s better suited for relief. That transition should happen soon. He’s still starting, so he gets a spot in this list while also getting a nod in the relief list. De La Cruz will probably spend the year starting or transitioning to relief at Gwinnett with a call-up possible as a reliever.
Freddy Tarnok - 40
Thoughts on Tarnok vary widely because of the volatility. It’s easy to see the possibilities. He’s a solid athlete with a great pitcher’s frame, the athleticism to apply changes and flashes of lively stuff. He flashes mid-90s heat with plane and extension to go with equally sharp secondaries when he’s syncing up and feeling it. His stuff still tends to fluctuate, though, and he’s still working to shore up his delivery. Tarnok came into the system as a raw prospect in need of time and development, so none of this is surprising. Patience is still the name of the game here, with the end result being anywhere from valuable No. 4 to stalling as a depth guy. Returning to Class-A Advanced Florida and proving his health and consistency could be the plan.
Tyler Owens - 35+
Owens shows clear relief tendencies and will get a nod on that list as well. He lacks height and consistent command, but he has plus arm speed and a solid fastball/curve mix that he can ride to the upper levels. If he maintains his mid-90s velocity and throws strikes, Owens can move up lists as a potential major league reliever. He should start at Low-A Rome.
Ricky DeVito - 35+
There have been reports that DeVito’s stuff played above what I have, especially right after the draft, so a full season at Rome will tell what’s real. If his fastball is hitting mid-90s and his secondaries are sharper, DeVito is a starter prospect. He’ll likely continue to work in minor league rotations to find out.
System Depth:
- Trey Riley – Riley had a lost year of development as he couldn’t find the zone or miss bats. His stuff played down and he lost confidence. The stuff has been in the arm, though, so one year isn’t a cause for giving up on the fifth-rounder yet. We’ll find out one way or the other this season, either back on the complex or at Rome.
- Jared Johnson – Johnson is an overslot sleeper with a big, strong frame and velo potential. He could be a riser if the stuff is there. He’ll either go to Rome or extended.
- Nolan Kingham – Pitchability type with fringe stuff but good command. Kingham lacks standout stuff but throws strikes and locates to get the most from it. Perhaps he’ll earn a cup of coffee at some point but is likely to settle as depth. He’ll start at Double-A Mississippi.
- Joey Estes – Overslot 16th-rounder with an interesting arm. He’ll likely stay at extended and emerge at Danville.
- Roddery Munoz – Velo guy with the chance to get some attention if he throws well stateside at either Rome or extended.
40-Man: Wright, Wilson, Davidson, De La Cruz
Non-Roster Invitees: Anderson, Muller
2020 ETA: Anderson, Muller, Davidson, De La Cruz
Wright and Wilson already debuted. This is a complete guess because so many things can happen with pitching. If the Braves get pummeled by injuries, any and all could debut. If they stay healthy and effective, only one or two could debut. All should see major league time by early 2021.
Top Tool: Wright’s 60 slider
There are several plus-potential pitches in the system. Wright’s plus slider stands out as a true bat-missing secondary to pair with his plus fastball.
Breakout Candidate: Davidson
Davidson could ride his newfound lively stuff all the way to the majors in short order, depending on how much feel he shows. Wright is a candidate to break through and lock down a rotation spot right away.
2019 Top Transaction: Assigned Anderson and Davidson to Gwinnett.
2019 Top Performance: Davidson recorded a 2.03 ERA with 45 walks to 122 strikeouts in 110.2 innings at Mississippi.