Backfields Preview: Outfield
Backfields Preview is a positional breakdown of the Atlanta Braves system entering the 2020 season. Previous installments are catchers, first base, second base, third base and shortstop.
You don’t have to know much about Braves prospects to realize the system’s strengths are on the mound and in the outfield. While much is made of Atlanta’s pitching depth in the minors after several years of building up the system through arms, the organization is rich in outfield talent with the distinction of having two future solid everyday outfielders knocking on the door.
Beyond the potential generational defensive talent in Cristian Pache and potential five-tool regular in Drew Waters, the Braves boast two more toolsy outfield athletes in the lower levels along with a performer who has big bat speed and a plus-plus runner who plays center at a high level. Because prospects are prospects and you never know what will happen, the system depth at the outfield position is a valuable thing and could serve the team well.
With Ronald Acuña Jr. already playing at an MVP level in the majors and two more high-level prospects in Triple-A, the Braves should be known for the development of their outfielders as much as what they’re doing on the mound.
Graded:
Cristian Pache - 60
Pache is the consensus top prospect in the Braves system and one of the top outfield prospects in the game. His profile is well-chronicled at this point. He’s a perennial Gold Glove candidate with plus-plus center field defense and a plus-plus arm for the position. Even if he slows down a touch, which I expect him to do and already ticked him down to plus speed, he ranges the position and has such great body control that he’s a 70 defender anyway. That value alone would carry Pache to the majors as an average everyday center fielder. The added value comes from the occasional pull-side home run, which he’s doing more often with a lofted swing and cleaner lower half. He’ll likely remain a low OBP hitter with a less-than-stellar BB/K ratio, but the consistent gap power and good home run numbers will be gravy. He returns to Triple-A Gwinnett and his Atlanta debut depends on his first-half production as well as the Braves’ center field situation. Either way, he’ll debut this year and the job is his to lose in 2021.
Drew Waters - 55
While Pache has the exciting defense and speed, Waters is more of the do-everything-well type without a hindering tool. He’s going to strike out a lot, but as I wrote in my Pref List, his advanced feel for contact and exceptional exit velocity numbers will allow him to walk that line and hit enough in the majors. It may not come as quickly as first anticipated, with this spring serving as a reminder, but he has a plus-potential hit tool that will eventually show. That feel for the barrel helps produce consistently loud contact to the gaps with occasional pull-side homers. He’s an above-average runner who will steal some bases and has above-average range for the corner outfield with a plus arm. Waters’ tools aren’t flashy, but he does everything well and projects as a solid everyday outfielder. He likely spends most of the year at Gwinnett with the chance for a debut in the second half. Like Pache, a 2021 starting job is Waters’ to lose.
Michael Harris - 40+
The Harris report is conservative right now until he gets more pro reps and establishes himself in full-season ball. The early returns after the draft were positive though. He showed the potential to utilize all five tools as he develops, namely a plus arm for right field (he was strongly considered as a pitcher for the draft) and a loose, easy swing with a feel to hit. He’ll need to adjust to pro pitching and perhaps tone down his swing, but he showed early signs of tracking well and manipulating the bat for consistently solid contact. Harris is built well with a strong, compact, athletic frame, and he’ll grow into above-average raw power and produce steady pull-side homers. Similar to Waters, Harris isn’t a burner but runs well underway and ranges very well for a corner. He probably should be in center to help his value, but he could grow into enough power and hit enough to play in right. He’ll likely get a more lengthy shot at Low-A Rome this year.
Trey Harris - 40
I tend to be the low guy on Harris, so I always feel the need to start by saying whatever he becomes from here on, he’s already a tremendous scouting find by the Braves and is a testament to hard work and aptitude. Harris turned himself into a prospect and gets the most from his tools. He has above-average bat speed and has a good idea at the plate, although he can get aggressive or between pitches at times. There’s a decent knack for contact here and enough power to find the gaps consistently with occasional homers. He’s a fringe runner and defender, best suited for left field, so his best bet is a platoon or bench role. Considering his draft spot, that would be a huge success. He could split his season between Gwinnett and Double-A Mississippi with a shot at a late 2020 or early 2021 debut.
Greyson Jenista - 40
This season could mean the difference between a chance at a major league role and a career in Triple-A for Jenista. The mechanical swing, flat bat path and inconsistent approach haven’t made things easy for him. Also, despite being a solid athlete for his size with fringe-average run, his corner outfield defense has been spotty. The Braves sent him to Mississippi for the second half to see if he’d respond to the challenge, and he started to show signs of development. He’s carried it into this spring with more comfort at the plate and the best swing he’s had since the draft. The role likely remains an up/down or Triple-A bat, but he’s at least showing signs of progression now at 23 years old. Another challenge assignment to Gwinnett seems possible.
Stephen Paolini - 40
Paolini is in a similar spot as Michael Harris in that he could move up lists quickly if he establishes himself in his first full season. Paolini remains a bit of a mystery prospect to many after getting drafted in the fifth round last year. The Braves were one of the few on him and went all in with the early selection, loving his athleticism, projectable frame with quick bat and rangy center field defense. He’s already starting to fill out his frame and added muscle over the winter while tweaking his swing to utilize lift and clear his lower half better. There’s ceiling in this profile if he gets on track as a prospect. His spring may determine his 2020 assignment between extended and Rome.
System Depth:
- Justin Dean – Bench outfield potential if he hits. Dean is an exceptional athlete with plus-plus speed and a plus center field glove. He lacks impact hit or power but could run and glove his way to the upper levels. He’ll go to Class-A Advanced Florida.
- Jefrey Ramos – Ramos has a power-first approach with big swing-and-miss, a tough attribute when you’re left field only. The power is real and earns him a spot here, but he has to hit. He could return to Florida or get challenged at Mississippi.
- Kadon Morton – Overslot 19th-rounder with power and tools. He could pop up on radars this season. Seems likely he goes to extended and emerges at short-season Danville.
- Jeremy Fernandez – A short-season veteran who’s tooled up and can play center but has a bottom-of-the-scale eye. Even the slightest hint of an approach would get him on lists, but instead he’s playing himself into non-prospect status.
40-Man: Pache
Non-Roster Invitees: Waters, T. Harris, Jenista
2020 ETA: Pache, Waters
Pache and Waters should both get at least a brief call at some point this season, with Pache more likely to take a more stable role out of the chute because of his defense. Trey Harris and Jenista could get a late look but are more likely to be in play for 2021 with strong seasons.
Top Tool: Pache’s 70 glove
Pache’s center field defense is the most impactful tool in the Braves minor league system.
Breakout Candidate: Michael Harris or Paolini
I’m not sure that I see either as a breakout candidate, but they’re the two options. The two are more likely to go level by level with patience required.
2019 Top Transaction: Assigned Pache and Waters to Gwinnett, drafted and signed Michael Harris and Paolini, assigned Trey Harris and Jenista to Mississippi.
2019 Top Performance: Trey Harris hit a combined .323/.389/.498 with 26 doubles, seven triples, 14 home runs and eight stolen bases between three levels.