What Would A Full Season Of Kyle Wright Look Like In 2020?
A week ago, I tried an exercise by using present grades and computer projections in an attempt to project Cristian Pache’s 2020 season if he received consistent playing time. It proved timely, because he got the start in Monday’s scrimmage and doubled off the wall, showing a balanced, quick stroke that tapped into his developed raw power. He later jammed his right ankle into second base while sliding but is just sore and day-to-day.
Seeing his name in the lineup and promptly crushing a Josh Tomlin hanger got people talking about real playing time for Pache this season, whether from outplaying Ender Inciarte or sliding into a role because of injury or positive test. I remained conservative on his offensive projection should he get consistent playing time at some point, but I also made clear that his defensive value would more than make up for any inconsistencies at the plate to produce a net positive at the center field position. There’s a chance that Pache isn’t ready for multiple months of major league pitching, but there’s also a chance the Braves get as much value from him as Inciarte, if not more.
(EDIT: The Tuesday afternoon signing of Yasiel Puig might make that opportunity for Pache seem a little more distant, but the projection remains.)
Despite Pache’s ceiling and potential opportunity, the player who I believe will produce the most value among Braves prospects this season is Kyle Wright.
This declaration probably isn’t a surprise to those who keep up with my prospect list. I’ve stayed on Wright through his ups and downs the past couple years, consistently labeling him the system’s top pitching prospect. Everything has been there for the right-hander to reach his mid-rotation to slightly higher potential; it’s been a matter of adjustments.
Wright started to show those adjustments in spring training by leaning more heavily on his strengths. He simplified his pitch usage by working glove side with a mid-90s fastball to produce a natural cut, and he tunneled it with his plus slider to draw whiffs and weak contact against major league hitters. His slider usage increased quite a bit in spring camp, which has been an oft-discussed remedy for Wright. Instead of consistently mixing the curveball and changeup, he used them sparingly as change-of-pace pitches to keep batters off the hard two-pitch combination.
Wright had considerable momentum this spring before the shutdown. He’s said to be behind his fellow pitchers because he didn’t throw off a mound during quarantine, but it’s not a huge deal and shouldn’t keep him from getting to game speed quickly.
When he is up to speed, he could face a situation that’s primed for his major league emergence. Starters won’t throw more than four or five innings the first couple times, and some may stay on a limited inning or pitch count because of the heightened nature of a 60-game schedule. Wright could let loose for four innings or piggyback behind a starter for three or so innings. It could be incredibly difficult for a lineup to face that two-pitch mix perhaps just twice.
Because of the situation this schedule presents, and his pitch usage and effectiveness this spring, I’m willing to reach for Wright’s 2020 projection. ZiPS sees a 4.50 ERA/4.57 FIP with 8.63 K/9 and 3.75 BB/9. No projection sees anything lower than a 4.38 ERA/4.39 FIP, or anything higher than a 8.63 K/9. I think he beats all of these numbers.
I could see something between his 2018 at Double-A and 2019 at Triple-A, which would be between a 3.70 ERA/3.34 FIP and 4.17 ERA/4.32 FIP, along with a K/9 around 9. Assuming he stays healthy and doesn’t fall off a cliff when he starts facing hitters again, he seems set for a consistent role between a back-end rotation spot or piggyback spot. I’d rather see him start a game and get the first four innings, but I won’t be surprised by either role. Assuming he gets that consistent role, that’s very solid value from a 24-year-old with little service time.
In the middle of weird times and strange situations for baseball players, 2020 could present a great opportunity for Wright to lock down a major league role and really begin his career at the highest level. It hasn’t been an easy path for him in the major leagues, but adjustments and the right role could open the door for him now.