What Would A Full Season Of Cristian Pache Look Like In 2020?
Much of the Monday discussion on Twitter revolved around Nick Markakis and for good reason. The longtime outfielder opted out of the 2020 season, leaving the Braves with one fewer left-handed bat on the roster.
It’s impossible to project opening day rosters at this point. Players are opting out or testing positive every day. In response to the Markakis news, I tweeted that it wouldn’t surprise me if lineups become a hodgepodge of regulars, backups, Triple-A guys and prospects. One reply was that Cristian Pache has to be the MVP frontrunner at this point.
The response was obviously in jest, but it got me thinking about what a full Pache season could look like. If baseball happens, anything can happen roster-wise, and it’s not out of the question that a prospect gets a full-time role when he might not have otherwise.
Do I think Pache plays full time this season? Not unless the Braves lose a significant chunk of their outfield depth chart. Even if Ender Inciarte leaves the picture, Ronald Acuña Jr. is capable of playing center field every day, which would create opportunities for corner guys like Adam Duvall, Austin Riley, Peter O’Brien, and even guys like Johan Camargo and Charlie Culberson. It seems more likely that the Braves would go with a rotating mix of experienced players over Pache full time, but if push comes to shove, the top prospect could find himself in an impact role before it was expected.
So, what would 60 games of Pache look like in 2020?
The 21-year-old is clearly ready defensively. He’s already the best defender in the organization regardless of position and is capable of winning a Gold Glove in center right out of the chute. His glove currently grades plus-plus and has elite potential. The current grade has increased from his lower-level days because of shoring up route running and reads, but it was always an obvious 70 to 80 potential glove. His arm matches the glove at a current 70 and is a true weapon in center. He’s graded as high as a 70 run but is likely to settle 55 or 60 as he matures physically. He has already filled out his frame a good bit by adding muscle to the upper and lower halves.
The defensive value at a premium position is reason enough for Pache to get playing time this season, and it will be the main justification for putting him in a lineup this quickly in his career. The question is how much he can hit major league pitching right now.
I don’t post current grades for prospects, but a current hit tool grade for Pache would land around 35 or 40. A 4 hit is well below average and typically found on bench players and up/down types. I have a 45 on Pache’s potential hit, so it’s not a big difference from where he currently is and shows that his future value will rely heavily on his glove.
Pache has made great strides with his bat to get to where he is now. His lower half is more stable, he rotates and utilizes his hips better, and he taps into his developing power more consistently because of increased lift and extension. There will always be swing-and-miss because of his approach and an inconsistent feel for the outer half of the zone, but he hits mistake pitches and covers the middle and inner half well.
The Braves could get by with 4 hit production from Pache, placing him at the bottom of the order and receiving tons of value from his center field defense and occasional stolen base and home run. That would look something like a .300 OBP with double-digit home runs.
That may be best case scenario. Over 134 games, ZiPS projects .241/.289/.407 with a .292 wOBA, 76 wRC+, 14 home runs and six stolen bases. While the Braves would hope for more, this isn’t an unrealistic projection if he played every day right now. Perhaps something between the two points could happen. Also keep in mind that numbers could get skewed over 60 games, so he could open his career on a hot streak and surpass projections, or the opposite could happen.
That ZiPS projection, while low on the offensive side, still produces a net positive because of otherworldly defensive numbers. And that’s the appeal of playing Pache right now. If the Braves are able to make up the offensive production elsewhere, it’s not the worst option in the world.
But, again, the likely scenario at present, should holes require filling, would be to rely on the aforementioned corner guys to pick up the slack. It offers the better chance of serviceable offensive production while not giving up too much on defense.