Mailbag Part 2: Grissom, Catchers, Hernandez, 1B Sluggers, Shewmake
Part 1 of a two-part mailbag was posted Wednesday. Part 2 is below, covering a range of topics from Vaughn Grissom to more catcher debate to Braden Shewmake and more.
Q: Vaughn Grissom: Does he stick at shortstop? What’s the profile?
A: It’s been my belief since the draft that Grissom will eventually grow off the position and move to third base. It’s the sort of projectable frame you often see in young shortstops who eventually move. He has length and a lean waist, and the strides tend to be long. I haven’t seen him in forever, so I have no idea how much mass he has put on yet, but I expect him to fill out over the next couple years.
However, you probably will see some reports saying Grissom has the chance to stay at short. I do understand it. He has good range of motion for his length and is a good athlete with some quickness. He will likely play shortstop in the lower levels and will stay there until he’s forced off. And you do see the occasional lengthy frame stay at the position for a long time and get major league time there. But if you follow young prospects, you’ve seen the story many times of the growing shortstop who moves to third or elsewhere.
I expect Grissom to start at Low-A Augusta, so I should get an early indication of where he is size-wise and get several looks at his defense to help make a more definitive projection.
Q: If William Contreras gets the backup catcher role out of the gate and performs well in the role, what would you do after this year at the position?
- Let him start?
- Have Contreras and Shea Langeliers battle it out?
- FA/trade?
A: I’ve said for some time now that 2022 should be the target date to hand catching duties to a prospect. Assuming Contreras performs well wherever he is this season, he should be considered the favorite to be the main guy in 2022. His developmental strides over the past year have put him on that track, and the impending free agency of Travis d’Arnaud sets up the opportunity. I know I’m the high guy on Contreras, but I just don’t see him falling on his face when given the opportunity. There will be rough patches because of his aggressiveness at the plate and continued development on defense, but I’ve long held the belief that he’s an everyday major league catcher, and nothing has changed that for me.
I will direct you to my recent post on Contreras and Langeliers long term. Basically, these things work themselves out over time. One may not reach his everyday potential. The Braves may get an offer on one that they can’t refuse. There are many factors that can change things between now and when both should be ready to consistently handle some sort of major league role. Langeliers still needs to prove he can hit upper-level pitching. I don’t see him being a factor for at least another year. That possibly opens the door to Contreras proving he can handle the role. If he does? It would be hard to pull him out from behind the plate at that point.
Q: What does Daysbel Hernandez need to do to make it to The Show this year? Did we expect too much from C.J. Alexander, rushing him past Low-A? Did we contribute to his 2019 injuries?
A: I’ve said several times that it’s odd that Hernandez was left in Class-A Advanced Florida for all of 2019 while he dominated at an advanced age. Relief prospects should be constantly challenged and using their bullets for a purpose. He’s now 24 and still hasn’t seen Double-A Mississippi, and yet he’s still a legitimate prospect throwing gas with a tight slider. I should temper expectations somewhat by saying Hernandez isn’t a future late-innings reliever. The fastball lacks plane and is hittable at the thighs, while the slider tends to be short. But he’s a major league arm in some form, even if it’s just a back-of-the-bullpen role. He won’t see the major leagues this year, but hopefully he will be knocking on the door by year’s end and will compete for a pen spot in 2022.
I’m not sure any evaluator graded Alexander so highly that he’s become a huge disappointment or anything. It was aggressive to push him past Rome in 2018, but he responded by performing in a tough league to hit. I’ve never seen him as more than a bench or up/down corner bat, and he’s probably going to be depth now, which isn’t a sizable gap. But he’s been hit by bad luck and injuries at an unfair rate, and he’s never really had a chance to play his way into the picture. It’s been fun to watch him on the field this spring. The arm is still a cannon at third base and he has easy carry to the power when he barrels it up. I think he can carve out a productive upper-level career.
Q: Mahki Backstrom vs. Bryce Ball as the better 1B/DH long term? Also, what is the ETA for Kasey Kalich and how good can he be?
A: I have Ball as a potential everyday player and Backstrom on the Others list as a raw hitter whom I need to track. So my gap between the two is large at the moment. Ball’s spring has only solidified my high stance on him as a corner slugger who could impact a lineup in a couple years. There are several questions I’d like Backstrom to answer in his first full pro season. I should be putting eyes on him very early this season to help create a better projection.
If Kalich performs and reaches the upper levels with success this season, he should compete for a bullpen spot in 2022, or at least put himself on the radar. He hasn’t been in the picture through alternate sites, instructs, etc., so I have no idea what he’s going to look like when the season starts. I currently have him as a sleeper relief prospect.
Q: Do you think Braden Shewmake can be an above-average regular or is destined for the Culberson-sequel utility role? Always loved watching him play. Just a gamer.
A: I have Shewmake projected as a utility player who can play around the infield with a good glove and contact bat. I think the hit has above-average potential, but I also think some are overvaluing its potential impact. I’m basing that grade on contact ability, covering the zone and working the field. He has raw power but doesn’t have the stroke or approach to utilize it. The contact, reliable shortstop glove and decent speed could push him to a second-division regular role. I’m just not able to take that step and call him a future everyday player. I also hope the Braves don’t rush him. His camp looks last year and this year have been underwhelming. That’s not a knock on him. He just needs time and to gain comfort against pro pitching.