Mailbag: Harris's ETA, Vodnik, Ball, Backstrom, Shuster
Thanks to everyone for the questions. I got enough good ones to break it up into two posts, so if you don’t see one answered here, it was either answered within another question or you should check back Friday.
Q: What is the chance we see Michael Harris in 2021?
A: Zero. Unless you go watch him in minor league games. I expect him to start at either Double-A Mississippi or High-A Rome, and the Braves will let him hit his way up the ladder. If he performs out of his mind this season, seeing him at some point in 2022 isn’t out of the question. My original ETA from a 2019 look was 2024, but that was largely based on it being a poor look from being overmatched at Low-A Rome, and the ETA hasn’t aged well. I know Harris is the hype prospect this spring and for good reason; he’s developing well and shows traits of being an advanced hitter. He’s also 20 years old for all of 2021 and has 53 games in pro ball. Give him a little time.
Harris is No. 1 on the list of Braves prospects to see early in the season so that I can update my report. No live game looks since 2019 has made it impossible for me to stay ahead on his development and project him better, like I did with Ronald Acuña Jr.’s full-season debut at Rome. Team officials praising him at the alternate site and several good at-bats in spring training are great signs, but it’s a different monster when you’re fighting it in Game 120 at Double-A in late summer. By no means is that meant to take anything away from Harris’s development so far; it’s just a reminder to give him a little time (and that I need to see him as soon as possible).
Q: Victor Vodnik. Dude or ****** DUDE?
A: It appears that Joe is a fan of Victor Vodnik, and it’s easy to see why. The guy is a bulldog on the mound with a quick arm and plus-potential fastball despite the moderate build. He shows a feel to manipulate his fastball around the zone with natural cut and run, and he’s been approaching triple digits in bullpen sessions while sitting mid-90s. The breaking ball was solid last time I saw him and he can flash a changeup. The frame and relatively short arsenal likely spell relief, but if he stays healthy and maintains the heat, he’s a useful major league arm.
Q: I’ve seen little in your coverage of Darius Vines, but I understand he has a good FB/CB combo. Any thoughts on him?
A: I haven’t seen him, but I’ve heard Vines has three decent pitches that may play a little above the eye test. When I hear that about a seventh-round right-hander out of college, I usually expect upper-level depth and little else. He turns 23 before the season starts, so he needs to move. I’m sure I’ll see him early in the season at either Rome or Low-A Augusta and can paint a clearer picture at that time.
Q: Will my Greyson Jenista autograph ever carry any value?
A: Jenista was left off the alternate site roster last year and was the most notable omission among spring invites. Unfortunately, I think you’re starting to see the page turn on his prospect status. He actually made decent strides at Mississippi in 2019, but the lack of a 2020 season really hurt his chances of playing his way into some sort of potential bench role. Jenista’s qualities are obvious: He has solid athleticism for his size and tons of raw power. But I’ve never been drawn to the bat, going back to a 2018 look, because of its length and moving parts, and it’s shown in pro ball.
Q: Thoughts on Backstrom and Ball? Starters?
A: For Ball, check out the last couple sentences of this post and this tweet. I’ll have notes on his spring plate appearances soon. If you’re a subscriber, Ball’s full scouting report is live. For Backstrom, read this.
Q: Would love to hear a little on Shuster. Where is he likely to start the year? How are his other secondaries developing?
A: It’s such a strange time that a team drafts a guy in the first round a year ago and we have literally nothing new on him. My offseason report remains the same. I went above the industry on his changeup by slapping a 70 on its potential, because I saw some *nasty* offerings when he wore a Wake Forest uniform. I could be getting ahead of myself on that grade, and I’ll adjust if needed, but I’m confident it will be just as good as Ian Anderson’s. Shuster needs to answer these questions: Can we maintain his newfound velo bumping 95 and touching 97? Will the slider continue to develop at its current pace and be a reliable third pitch? Can he maintain his newfound command of this stuff? The 2021 season will help us figure out where he is in his development. He’s 22 and a first-rounder with advanced stuff from the left side, so I’m guessing he starts at either Mississippi or Rome and should be in Mississippi by the end of the year.