Cristian Pache Update And What It Means For Center Field
One of the biggest developments of the week involving Braves prospects came from the alternate training site at Gwinnett.
Cristian Pache, the consensus top-ranked Braves prospect and top 100 guy, is reportedly back to full strength after suffering a sprained ankle in summer camp. He is said to be going through daily team workouts and games.
The 21-year-old center fielder was unlikely to make the opening day roster for the Braves regardless. He was receiving playing time in camp to get back up to speed and get experience on the major league field, but Atlanta’s outfield situation made it highly unlikely that he would have received consistent at-bats had he made the roster.
Things are a bit different now. The center fielder ahead of him on the depth chart, Ender Inciarte, entered the weekend hitting .182/.280/.227 with two extra-base hits and six walks. He has just eight hits in 50 plate appearances.
Inciarte also currently holds the lowest average exit velocity among major league hitters, a full 5 mph worse than the next lowest. Combine a 54 percent ground ball rate, 57 percent pull rate and one of the worst barrel rates in the majors, and it equals a hitter who is rolling over the majority of his batted balls for easy outs to the right side of the infield.
The 29-year-old’s obvious strength is the center field glove, where he’s been a perennial Gold Glove candidate for a while. However, with the acknowledgement that defensive stats are volatile, Inciarte has started trending downward on defense. He didn’t grade out as well last year, though he dealt with injuries and it’s a small sample. But that has carried into 2020 so far, both in numbers and the eye test. It’s been an up-and-down start to his defensive production this season for a player who relies on the glove for the vast majority of his value.
Pache is already a better defender than Inciarte in center. This isn’t a controversial opinion. The prospect is currently at least a plus to plus-plus defender with easy 70 or higher potential. He also has a weapon arm for the position compared to Inciarte’s poor arm strength.
What kind of production the Braves could get from Pache’s bat is uncertain. This has been the question for a while and will continue to be the question.
I attempted to project a full season from him in July and came up with possibly a .290-.300 OBP with double-digit home runs and a few stolen bases (reminder that was over a full season). Even that would be a noteworthy jump from Inciarte’s current production because of the power potential. Add Gold Glove-level defense and that’s a notable net gain going from Inciarte to Pache.
It is worth noting that Pache is coming off injury and hasn’t had consistent reps at Gwinnett over the past few weeks. Also, he’s 21 with a volatile bat, so there’s risk in dropping Inciarte for a young prospect that could crater at the plate, leaving the Braves with even more difficult choices. It’s also fair to assume Inciarte isn’t going to be this bad all season considering he has a history of performance and is a slow starter.
But the Braves have already made decisions in this shortened season with heightened tension in every game. Inciarte has been sitting against right-handed pitchers when Ronald Acuña Jr. is healthy. The Braves would surely rather have Acuña in right field on a daily basis.
Pache represents the upside play, just as a pitching prospect like Tucker Davidson would for the rotation. Giving a spot to a young prospect is always a risky call, and an organization wants to be 100 percent certain when making that kind of decision. But at some point this year Pache should at least get a call to see what he can do to help in this crazy season.