Braves Prospect Retrospective: Max Fried
On Wednesday, I began looking back at the 2016 Rome roster and the reports I wrote on those prospects, starting with Mike Soroka. It was just four years ago and the final determination is still unknown for some of those prospects, but it’s obvious that the ‘16 Rome group was a special one. Today we look at another special arm from that rotation: Max Fried.
Fried has always been a unique prospect, having had Tommy John surgery early, getting traded in the midst of that, and not just successfully returning from the surgery but developing beyond many evaluations. Because of a lengthy minor league process early in his pro career, he’s been a couple years behind, hence his first full major league season coming at 25 years old.
The last line from my 2016 report on Fried said: “Fried will require patience, but the end result could be special.” At that time, he was regaining feel for his stuff after surgery and his velocity had a wide range from 92-94, t95 early to 88-91 late. He was older and basically restarting his career, but there were obvious signs that he could still be that special rotation piece if he stayed healthy and on track.
I gave Fried’s fastball a future 60 grade based largely on projection. As I said, his 2016 velocity was inconsistent, but he had the projectable frame and arm speed to hit 92-96 regularly if he stayed healthy. I often talk about the changeup being a projection pitch, but Fried’s fastball was a projection pitch at that time, and I was probably the high person on his fastball grade. Now, Fried averages 94 with riding life up in the zone and the ability to command all four quadrants. He grew into his lean frame and added the necessary strength to consistently pump that 92-96 with life up and down.
The curveball has always been Fried’s go-to weapon. It was an easy plus-potential pitch in 2016 (I graded it 60) and some went as high as plus-plus. It was a true 1/7 breaker with double-plus depth and hard bite as it fell toward the knees. He didn’t have great feel for it coming off surgery but consistently developed that into what he has now, capable of throwing it in and out of the zone and in any count. It remains his bat-missing secondary and out pitch.
Fried largely replaced his changeup for a slider as his third pitch. He didn’t have the slider when I saw him, but he flashed an above-average change that was mostly projection at the time (I graded it 55). It was well below average in 2016 and needed work, but the framework was there to at least reach average based on his arm speed, frame and movement. He rarely throws it now, but it flashes average.
Luckily for him, he ditched the changeup in favor of a slider as his third pitch and has taken off with it. It’s an excellent change off the curve with increased velocity and the ability to bury it glove side. It tunnels very well with the fastball. Aside from increased feel for his stuff and a stronger fastball, no one factor has contributed to his development more than the slider.
I always liked Fried’s delivery and it’s mostly stayed the same. There’s crossfire but he repeats his line to the plate well. It’s always been a repeatable motion with a quick but smooth tempo and great arm speed. This helped him regain his feel, find his release and develop his command as he neared Atlanta.
Overall, I gave Fried a 60 grade as a similar mid-rotation lock as Soroka. It’s funny that the two 60 pitchers I graded from that Rome rotation are now 1-2 in the Braves rotation. It’s not out of the question for Fried to slide above Soroka as the more valuable pitcher long-term. Fried has long had the slightly higher ceiling. It seems like a good bet that the two will compare similarly over time.