Braves Prospect Retrospective: Mike Soroka
I followed Mike Soroka for his 2016 season, his first full season in pro ball. As a first-round draft pick, he was an obvious follow on what was then considered one of the most talented A-ball rosters in recent memory and certainly the most talented I had seen along with 2015 Greenville.
Besides Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley manning their positions, Rome boasted Soroka, Max Fried, Touki Toussaint, Patrick Weigel and Kolby Allard as its rotation, which is easily the most impressive A-ball rotation I’ve ever seen and may ever witness. You don’t see five projected major leaguers in a minor league rotation at one time, and certainly not in the South Atlantic League.
Soroka wasn’t the most exciting prospect on the team or even in the rotation, but he was the safest bet to land on his grade. His overall varied at that time depending on the eyes, anywhere from 50 as a back-end guy because of sinker concerns to 60 as a high mid-rotation lock with 2 type ability in his best seasons. There was the occasional question on how his average fastball velocity and sinker profile would play in the upper levels, but for the most part there was confidence that he would pan out as a solid rotation arm for a long time.
I also saw him in that way when I followed his 2016 season, starting with a mid-April outing. I came away from that start seeing three major league pitches with advanced feel for his age and an impressive frame built to log innings.
For his fastball, I gave Soroka a future 60 grade, which may have appeared a slight reach at the time considering he was sinking it at 90-93, touching 94. I went high on the pitch because I saw his command developing higher than average with more repetition, and he had the projectability to increase his velocity. He still averages 92-93 but is easily capable of pumping 95+ when he needs it without sacrificing the immense depth to the pitch. He also adds the occasional four-seamer up to change eye levels and still has natural cut when he locates glove side.
For his slider, I gave Soroka a future 60 grade. He was still gaining feel for the pitch that year, but it flashed as a true wipeout pitch in the low-80s. The breaking ball featured extremely late break with solid tilt and two-plane ability when spun well. As is the case now, he would sometimes overthrow, causing it to back up or spin loose and up. But it’s always profiled as his bat-misser.
For his changeup, I gave Soroka a future 50 grade. He only flashed the pitch in that April start and never had a feel for it, but the framework was there to be a major league offering based on arm speed, delivery repetition and overall feel for his stuff. He later showed a better changeup as that season progressed, and it has developed into a solid third pitch with similar movement and arm speed off the sinker.
I wrote at the time that Soroka’s command grades would increase with time. He was still growing into his rapidly developing body. He joked to me back then that he was re-learning how to pitch every year because his body kept changing. That year, he was listed at 195 pounds, but I eyeballed him at 225. Funny that he’s now listed at exactly 225. Having grown into his frame and with more repetition, he has developed his command at an impressive pace.
Soroka’s makeup gets more attention than anything else and for good reason. It’s off-the-charts type makeup. As a minor leaguer, he would sit behind home plate while charting and constantly talk baseball, wanting to learn as much as he could and being a sponge around coaches, teammates and evaluators. Along with his natural athleticism and God-given talent and frame, his aptitude and coachability allowed him to max out his grades. When a kid has elite makeup, you tend to have more confidence in stuffing the report. Soroka is a great example.
I gave Soroka a 60 overall as a mid-rotation lock. A 2.68 ERA and only 14 long balls allowed in a homer-crazed 2019 season spells a grade higher than the role I gave him. I think he comes back to earth a bit in 2020, but I also think he plays above the peripherals throughout his career. That would land along the lines of that 60 overall.