State Of The System: The Lower Levels
State of the System is a series on the Atlanta Braves’ minor league system from scouting and player development to the talent on the field.
A previous installment of this series focused on the upper levels of the Braves system. That post began by saying it’s no secret that the system is top-heavy.
“The organization’s rebuild through the farm led to international signings, high draft picks and lots of picks over a period of time. When many of those prospects developed, sanctions on the international side hit, and recent draft picks didn’t land, it resulted in a top-heavy system that has already produced fruit in the majors and has more highly ranked prospects knocking on the door.”
That of course means the lower levels don’t have the same level of future major league talent. It’s tough to maintain such a high rate of production from a farm system over many years, so a drop in talent was inevitable, but the drop is perhaps currently steeper than the organization would like.
While it’s obviously better to have your projected major league talent knocking on the door to the majors instead of A-ball, it’s a sign of lack of system depth when there’s a fall-off toward the lower levels.
Of the 12 prospects listed at 45+ overall or higher, only two are projected to start the season below Double-A – Shea Langeliers and Bryce Ball. Those two could easily reach Mississippi with solid performances.
Beyond the 45+ threshold, you start to see more lower-level prospects trickling into the picture. Some of those players could move up the list and gain higher grades quickly with more pro reps over their first full season. The two main ones are Michael Harris and Vaughn Grissom.
Harris is already getting recognition for his athleticism, strong arm and loose, easy swing, showing everyday-type tools if he puts it all together. Grissom is more of a sleeper at the moment but has wiry strength, a projectable frame and solid power potential. Both could see their grades increase significantly if they perform in A-ball, which would help boost the lower-level talent.
Stephen Paolini is a dark horse when considering prospects that could elevate the lower-level talent. Another prep position prospect, Paolini is a raw product currently growing into a very athletic frame with a potential combination of gap power and speed. He also projects as a solid defensive center fielder. Like Harris and Grissom, Paolini could see his grades increase a good bit as he gets more pro reps. This is a potentially tantalizing trio of position prospects behind Langeliers and Ball, but volatility remains extreme.
Aside from a couple future relief prospects – Victor Vodnik and Tyler Owens, maybe Ricky DeVito – the rest of the lower levels is full of maybes, lacking the across-the-board tools found on reports for Harris, Grissom and Paolini.
There are glimpses of intrigue, though.
Jared Johnson is an overslot arm-strength type with a big frame who could move up lists as he gets more time. Kasey Kalich is a sleeper reliever who could move quickly without notoriety. Other sleeper arms include Jake Higginbotham, Mitch Stallings, Lisandro Santos, Alec Barger, Justin Yeager, Joey Estes, Roddery Munoz and Jose Montilla, but sleeper arms in this case means best-case middle relief.
Mahki Backstrom is the most notable position player among the “glimpses of intrigue.” The big prep first baseman has a quick bat for his size and tons of power potential. If he hits, he could follow Ball as a legitimate first base prospect. It’s a tough profile to fulfill, though, and he has to max out everything at the plate.
Beyond Backstrom, there’s very little to mention. Justin Dean has fourth outfielder potential based on speed and defense, but he lacks the bat for more. Logan Brown, Beau Philip, A.J. Graffanino and Greg Cullen all play up the middle in various forms, but none profile as more than bench, up/down or depth roles. Darling Florentino is tough to give up on because of some loud tools and present strength, but his extreme aggressiveness at the plate limits his potential. Kadon Morton has gotten some whispers as an overslot outfielder with a power profile that could pop up, but we’ll find out more as he plays.
It is true that the 2019 Braves draft class could end up better than many first gave credit for, especially with Langeliers quickly developing into an impact catching prospect. Additional position players like Braden Shewmake, Ball, Harris, Grissom and Paolini are projected to lead that class, and you can find a lot of major league tools from that group. That keeps the system from being completely barren at the bottom.
However, there is a notable lack of depth at present. To keep the system churning, some of these overslot picks will need to develop. That’s a lot of volatility, but that’s the purpose of player development.