Ramifications Of MLB's Five-Round Draft
Major League Baseball’s 2020 draft will consist of just five rounds.
After MLB proposed a draft of at least 10 rounds a couple weeks ago, the players union shot it down as a means of holding its ground ahead of what’s expected to be tougher negotiations on player salaries. MLB’s proposal called for significant reductions in bonuses for selections after the fifth round, as well as a cap on the number of undrafted signings for $20,000. The amateur side is catching the worst of the bargaining, as it often does, by being limited to five rounds instead.
Baseball will draft 150 players instead of the usual 1,200. There won’t be a cap on the number of undrafted players a team can sign at $20,000, creating a Wild West scenario for the undrafted market. Much chaos is ahead for scouting directors and those who work under them.
First, it should be noted that it’s unreasonable to hold a 40-round draft or even a 20-round draft at this point. Minor league baseball in 2020 probably won’t be anything more than complex-level play, similar to spring training backfield action. With little time on the field, it would make no sense to add dozens of new players to a system.
Also, while owners have spent an incredible amount of effort to limit the relatively minor amount of amateur spending in the sport, they are with cause as they try to limit their spending these days. There’s obviously no revenue coming in despite continued expenses. The amount they’re saving continues to look like a drop in the bucket, but it’s also a first shot at reducing player pay, which looms at the major league level in the future.
With that said, you have to feel for the players affected by this five-round decision. That’s a lot of players who will miss their chance at pro ball and perhaps the majors, miss their opportunity at a solid amount of money for themselves and their families, miss the experience of playing pro ball that could lead to becoming a college or pro coach and in turn developing future players. The ramifications of so many players not turning pro will be felt far and wide.
From Ken Rosenthal’s column at The Athletic: In the words of agent Scott Boras, “We probably should have bought a billboard that said, ‘Go play other sports after Little League. Goodbye.’”
It is indeed self-defeating to limit the number of players who want to enter your sport, but MLB has performed similar self-defeating measures in the past in various ways, all with money in mind. It’s been known within the industry that baseball people, such as general managers and scouting directors, wanted at least 10 rounds this year but didn’t have high hopes for it. The players union didn’t want to lose its negotiating ground on salaries. The owners won.
Signing bonus values for this year’s draft will remain the same as 2019. The bonuses will be deferred, with orgs paying a max of $100,000 to a player this year, 50 percent of the remainder on July 1, 2021, and the other 50 percent a year after that.
Next year’s draft is expected to be at least 20 rounds.
One of the most interesting aspects of all this will be the $20,000 undrafted market and how it plays out. Different people have said different things about this market, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if good players choose this route so they can start their pro careers under the eyes of an org’s player development department.
Therefore, recruitment will be key for scouting departments, almost like a college staff trying to bring a player to its school. Scouts will sell their org’s name and legacy, they’ll develop relationships with players and families, they’ll sell opportunity, facilities, technology, all of it. There’s also the possibility of incentivizing a decision by drafting a player’s teammate or signing best friends together. MLB will need to police this market to avoid under-the-table possibilities.
It’s been said before, but college baseball will reap the benefits of these decisions by seeing massive numbers of players returning to school for another year. The talent pool will in turn be tremendous for the foreseeable future. Junior college, especially, will be richer in talent than ever before as it offers players the chance to enter the draft earlier in the process, creating flexibility for the player in uncertain times. You’ll see more Division I and high school players go the junior college route as playing time and scholarships become an issue.
In a world where seemingly everything is different right now, baseball is, too. That’s certainly the case on the amateur side, and it’s going to affect the sport for quite a while.