MLB Draft: Mock Draft Roundup
In normal times, mocking the baseball draft isn’t quite as difficult as it may appear. If your boots are on the ground at showcases and high-profile spring games, you see executives and scouting directors watching certain players and you’re able to pick up patterns of who’s watching whom. Sometimes the pattern is a specific player, sometimes it’s a certain skill set. You also use pick history for directors who have been in their positions for a while.
You then use contacts to solidify these observations, and you’re able to at least nail down a small group of possible players for each pick in the first round or so. Most of the time it works.
These are not normal times, as you’re aware at this point. Draft and prospect writers are more in the dark this year than normal. Contacts and sources are relied upon more than ever. Writers are also relying on their evaluation skills based off previous looks and recent video, just like the organizations are, to help put together their boards, which in turn helps guide their mocks.
With all that said, I’m changing up what I would normally do for draft coverage. Instead of relying solely on my own mock drafts, I’m going to round up the mocks I trust to provide a look into what writers and the industry are thinking. I’ll still provide my own thoughts in a final pre-draft post Wednesday that focuses on possible Braves strategy.
Starting at FanGraphs, Eric Longenhagen posted his second mock draft Monday. It shows the typical Spencer Torkelson/Austin Martin 1/2 punch at the top, but the big jump is prep outfielder Zach Veen up to 4, which in turn boosts prep outfielder Robert Hassell to 8. The Padres seem set on going prep at 8, so if the Royals go prep at 4, this seems like a realistic path.
College talent still runs the first round with the vast majority of picks. Eric has nine prep players going Day 1 right now, which is actually a couple more than I first expected. You could see orgs take a gamble on a prep player who falls to later in the first round and cut a deal. The same could apply to an org picking a college player to cut a deal and go overslot on Day 2.
The Braves are still attached to the college group on Eric’s latest by picking Duke right-hander Bryce Jarvis. This still seems like the most likely course of action, whether it’s Jarvis or someone similar. They will have options at 25 that fit this mold. Eric adds that the Braves are attached to LSU right-hander Cole Henry for their second selection. If they want to make up for a lack of pitching depth in the lower levels, this would be the answer.
MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo posted his latest mock recently. It’s more college-heavy at the top but mentions the possibility of the Royals going prep at 4 with Veen. Jonathan differs from Eric on the paths of several college arms around 25, which shows that anything can happen with this subgroup mid-to-late-first. Jarvis goes to the Cardinals at 21, Miami’s Slade Cecconi at 22 and Texas Tech right-hander Clayton Beeter to Atlanta at 25. Beeter goes higher on Eric’s mock, but he’s a wild card with a lack of history. Jonathan stays college-heavy toward the bottom, which would create even more of an up-in-the-air situation around 25.
MLB.com’s Jim Callis has his mock up from May 27. We’ll probably see another before Wednesday. Callis has the Braves picking Miami’s Chris McMahon, who is another college righty possibility at 25. This is based on his view that Beeter will go before 25 and Jarvis won’t go at all in the first round.
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel posted his latest mock in late May, so he’ll likely provide an update in the next day or two. It’s behind a paywall, so I’ll honor that and not provide further details. Kiley is one of the best in the draft business and deserves a read. He’ll also be worth watching on draft day at ESPN for his analysis and draft board.
The same applies to Carlos Collazo at Baseball America. Carlos is a great guy and deserves a read behind the paywall. He’s also one of the best in the draft business and can serve as a guide on draft night with his analysis and draft board.
The Athletic’s Keith Law posted his latest paywall mock this past Wednesday. He goes in a bit of a different direction from other writers on the Braves, but the prep angle isn’t off the wall from what I’ve heard. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Braves grabbed a prep talent or two despite the college-heavy presence to the class. It’s based on the desire to get high-ceiling talent at a good price. I would be a little more surprised if it happens in the first round, but at some point I could see it happening.
Finally, Keanan Lamb at Baseball Prospectus is ranking the top draft prospects as a big board. His latest is 11-20 and it’s counting upward to 1.