MLB Draft: Intro To 2020 Class
Today kicks off the beginning of draft coverage leading up to the two-day event June 10-11. Between now and Wednesday, I’ll touch on different angles of the draft, especially from a Braves perspective. There will be rapid reaction to Day 1 on a special Thursday post and the same for Day 2 on a Friday post. I’ll then dive deeper into Atlanta’s class the following week.
I’ll start with an introduction to the draft and its class. It’s safe to say this is a unique draft that requires its own intro. I dug into the event’s details May 18 and provided a Q&A for commonly asked questions. Here’s some of what I wrote:
“Day 1 of the draft will take place June 10 at 7 p.m. and cover the first round totaling 37 picks. Rounds 2-5 totaling 123 picks will begin at 5 p.m. on June 11.
You’re likely to see a production similar to that of the NFL draft, with a general manager or other team executive from each organization on a video call. It doesn’t seem likely that orgs will be allowed to have a draft room. I’m sure it’ll be broadcast on MLB Network like always. (EDIT: It was later announced it’ll be on MLB Network and ESPN.)
We already knew signing bonus details from the March agreement. Teams are allowed to delay signing bonuses with a max of $100,000 within 30 days of a signing, 50 percent of the remainder due July 1, 2021, and the remaining 50 percent on July 1, 2022. Slot values are frozen from 2019.”
And, of course, any player signed as an undrafted free agent is maxed at $20,000, which creates a wide open market once those five rounds are complete. That period will begin June 14.
Here are the bonus pools and slot values.
There are so many variables to the draft this year that would otherwise never be a thing. The length of the event itself; signing bonus negotiations based on deferrals and college scholarship numbers; players weighing opportunity; organizational cash to spend on bonuses; lack of in-person looks on players and dependence on video and data. And that’s not even close to all of the unique aspects this year. It should make for an interesting two days and beyond regarding new talent entering the Braves system.
For better or worse, you’ll probably see some organizations go with low-risk college players more often than a typical draft. That pitcher who produced good reports early in the college season might get weighed above the prep pitcher who hasn’t been in front of eyes in twice as long. I don’t know if there will be real evidence of this. It may or may not show on draft day. Plus, organizations tend to stick to certain strategies when scouting heads remain in place for a while. But it’s something to consider and something I’ve heard as a possibility.
Another factor making that possible is the heavy college presence to this class, especially at the top and bottom for Day 1. You’re likely to see a large number of college players go in the first round. If a scouting director loves college pitching, it’s their year. This has also been helped by several recent announcements of Day 1 and 2 talent pulling out of the draft to go to college. I’ve said it before, but the talent pool in college baseball is going to be through the roof when they start playing again.
Perhaps the top two draft prospects in the class are college position players in Arizona State’s Spencer Torkelson and Vanderbilt’s Austin Martin. You’re also likely to see New Mexico State’s Nick Gonzales go early. Beyond that, you’re talking about arms like Texas A&M’s Asa Lacy, Georgia’s Emerson Hancock, Minnesota’s Max Meyer and Louisville’s Reid Detmers going early. Not far below, there’s Oklahoma’s Cade Cavalli, Tennessee’s Garrett Crochet and Texas Tech’s Clayton Beeter. The Braves would likely pounce if any of these latter names fell to 25, perhaps Beeter.
Georgia’s Cole Wilcox is another big right-hander likely to go mid-first. Duke’s Bryce Jarvis, Miami’s Slade Cecconi and Chris McMahon, and Louisville’s Bobby Miller are more first-round options. There’s also Ohio State catcher Dillon Dingler, Mississippi State second baseman Justin Foscue and Baylor shortstop Nick Loftin. I’ve also seen North Carolina first baseman Aaron Sobato as a safe performer pick in the back half of the first round.
It’s almost as if prep pitching isn’t even a thought early in the first round. Among the early prep options, Zac Veen, Robert Hassell, Austin Hendrick and Pete Crow-Armstrong are outfielders. If Crow-Armstrong signs, he could be a steal as a toolsy center fielder going mid-first. There’s also prep catcher Tyler Soderstrom. The Reds are a wild card at 12 for a prep pick and could take an early prep arm in Mick Abel. Otherwise, Abel, who could be a steal as the first prep pitcher taken, may fall.
I’ll write a more detailed post on what the Braves may do as we get closer to the date. But this initial introduction shows they have options if they take the college arm route, which seems pretty likely at the moment. It also lines up with the possibility of going prep ceiling afterward, something similar to last year but in a much smaller way with only five rounds.