Mailbag: Rule 5, '21 Debuts, Pache vs. Waters, Draft, Free Agency
Thank you to everyone who submitted questions for today’s mailbag via Twitter. Topics include Rule 5 status, more Pache vs. Waters discussion, 2021 debuts, the draft, free agency and more.
Q: Which bigger-named prospects risk being lost next year if not added to the 40-man roster?
A: The Braves will have to add a higher-ranked prospect to avoid losing him in the Rule 5 draft this year, and I expect his addition to the 40-man this offseason. Otherwise, any potential losses involve fringe prospects and it wouldn’t be an impactful loss.
The one big name you’ll see added before the Rule 5 draft this year is Kyle Muller. He becomes eligible this December. He fits the mold of what orgs look for in the draft as a left-hander with present stuff whom they could try to keep in the bullpen all season. You never see prospects this highly ranked get left unprotected.
Beyond Muller, there are no locks for 40-man additions from the system. It’s actually a pretty weak offseason in terms of prospect additions to the 40-man.
Jonathan Morales could be a candidate if the Braves decide to move on from Alex Jackson, but that’s a lateral move at best. I guess Morales could be a Rule 5 candidate, but there are safer bets for teams looking for catching depth. Riley Unroe could be seen as a utility type for a second-division squad. He held his own at the plate at Double-A last year and got some exposure in big league camp this spring. Riley Delgado and Jefrey Ramos haven’t established themselves enough to be Rule 5 considerations. Beyond them, you’re looking at the usual cast of reliever names, such as Odalvi Javier, Thomas Burrows, Kurt Hoekstra, Connor Johnstone, Josh Graham, Corbin Clouse, Bradley Roney, Troy Bacon and Brandon White. White and Bacon may have been Rule 5 candidates if they had performed over a full season at Double-A. Otherwise, I don’t see how anything has changed for this group from the previous year.
The December 2021 group will be more interesting. It currently includes names like Drew Waters, Freddy Tarnok, William Woods, Logan Brown, Greg Cullen, C.J. Alexander, Trey Harris, Justin Dean, Greyson Jenista, A.J. Graffanino, Trey Riley, Mitch Stallings, Daysbel Hernandez, Jose Montilla and Jake Higginbotham. Candidacy for many of them will depend on how 2021 plays out. Waters will obviously be added at some point soon, and I’m guessing Woods and Tarnok will, too.
Q: Which prospect that hasn’t made an MLB start yet starts in 2021?
A: If we’re talking about literal pitching starts, Kyle Muller is probably next in line to make his debut now that Tucker Davidson has a start under his belt. Muller tracks as a late-innings reliever for me, but I’m sure he will get major league starts. Jasseel De La Cruz is clearly tracking as a reliever and may never get an MLB start, but he’s another candidate if the Braves decide to give him that opportunity. Patrick Weigel has already appeared as a reliever and likely remains a bullpen guy. For a more traditional starter prospect, Jared Shuster may be next behind Muller, although I’d be surprised if he debuts in 2021 unless it’s out of necessity or a September reward.
If we’re talking about prospects in general getting their first appearance on a lineup card, I’d say either Muller or Drew Waters. Cristian Pache would have been the obvious call had he not already done so.
Q: Is Waters MLB-ready next year?
Q: When would you see Pache and Waters coming up?
Q: Better future value: Pache or Waters?
A: This is always the most popular mailbag topic, so I’ll combine a few of these questions into one answer.
It won’t surprise me if Drew Waters makes his debut at some point in 2021. I’d be more surprised if he didn’t. But he should not be considered a candidate for a corner outfield spot out of spring training. He needs to get more Triple-A reps and gain more comfort against advanced pitching. I think the Braves realize this and would not throw him into the fire out of spring camp. He probably stays at Gwinnett for at least half of next season.
Cristian Pache, however, could be considered a strong candidate for the 2021 center field job. His defense is already the best in the org regardless of position, so it comes down to whether they feel his bat is ready for the challenge. I think it’s 50/50 between him starting out of the gate or getting a few more Triple-A reps. The job should be his by the midway point.
Pache has higher upside than Waters. He’s a generational defensive talent in center field and is capable of running into 20 homers a year. Waters can play a corner at a high level and also run into 20 homers but with more doubles and baserunning impact. Neither will have impactful on-base numbers. I have their overall at a half-grade difference in favor of Pache for these reasons.
Q: Are the Braves done with Touki Toussaint and Sean Newcomb? Will either/both be back next year?
A: The only reason the Braves wouldn’t bring both back is if they’re involved in trades. Both have options and can continue to try to work out their development under Atlanta’s watch. Newcomb is clearly a reliever at this point and has proven capable of handling a bullpen role. This should be his future going forward. I think the bullpen is also Toussaint’s future, but the Braves can afford to work him in Gwinnett’s rotation in 2021 and see if something clicks.
Q: Can you do a brief rundown on your top guys from the 2019 draft? I know there’s not much to go on, but some early impressions?
Shea Langeliers is the guy from that class so far, for good reason as a first-round pick. He projects as at least an above-average defender with a weapon arm and the ability to handle a staff. He’s impressed with the bat early on, showing a balanced, quick stroke and performing well. He’s an everyday catcher in the majors as long as the bat progresses like it should.
Bryce Ball and Michael Harris are perhaps the most intriguing picks. Ball has everyday slugger potential with massive raw power and more feel to hit than the typical first base profile produces. He just has to answer hit questions when he faces advanced pitching. Harris shows several tools as an athletic corner outfielder with a cannon arm, some speed and a potential feel to hit based on a loose, quick stroke. There’s more pop in the barrel than his size suggests, and he could develop into an impactful multi-tool prospect with hit, pop and defense.
Braden Shewmake gets a lot of love these days as a potential starting infielder, but I see a utility guy with contact ability and sure hands. Vaughn Grissom has everyday slugger potential at third base if he hits. He could quickly move up prospect lists alongside Harris. Stephen Paolini is an interesting name as a raw, athletic center fielder. Kadon Morton has pop potential up the middle in center. Mahki Backstrom has big power potential and is an athlete at first base, but he has to prove he can hit. Otherwise, there are arm-strength names to remember like Kasey Kalich, Ricky DeVito, Tyler Owens, Jared Johnson, Joey Estes, Alec Barger and Justin Yeager.
Q: What do you think the organizational strategy was in our most recent draft? Seems like a majority of fans didn’t really understand what was going on.
A: I don’t think the Braves’ 2020 draft strategy deviated from 2019 as much as people think. Fan perception may have been thrown off by the limited number of rounds and the fact that the later picks were college products instead of raw teenagers. Even so, there are similarities.
Popping Jared Shuster in the first round is the pitching equivalent of popping Shea Langeliers. He’s a high-floor guy with enough upside to project a rotation future, just as Langeliers is a high-floor guy based on defense with enough hit upside to project an everyday catcher. The Jesse Franklin pick was similar to some of their other college position player picks that saved money while adding a major league tool or two to the system. Spencer Strider is the pitching equivalent of that by saving money while adding a major league two-pitch mix to the system.
The money saved went to Bryce Elder, who is seen as the upside pick of their class. The Braves like his combination of floor with a present MLB two-pitch mix and the potential for a deep, starter’s arsenal and workhorse frame. Instead of the money-saving strategy producing raw, upside teenagers, it produced Elder, who gives the Braves a much-needed starter prospect for the system.
Q: I know free agency is a crapshoot, but do you see the Braves making a splash in the market? Anything other than the one-year prove-it deals we’ve seen recently (Donaldson, Ozuna, Hamels)? And if so, do you maybe have a couple names to keep an eye on?
A: I will gladly eat my words here later on, but I would be absolutely shocked if the Braves charted a different free agent course this winter. I expect more one-year veteran deals if the market allows.
Kyle Wright’s adjustments have given the Braves reason to pencil him into a spring rotation spot. The hope is to have Mike Soroka back at some point during the season. I think there’s enough in-house to roll with another depth signing or two. I don’t know who that may be, but something similar to the Cole Hamels signing could happen again (while obviously hoping it works out better this time).
The problem with this strategy on offense is that the Braves are back in the same situation of needing an impact bat again. They’re 2 for 2 on this strategy so far, but at some point it’s going to come back to bite them if they keep trying it, and that could be catastrophic for the lineup. Locking down Marcell Ozuna solves that problem, but it depends on the market and whether the Braves are willing to spend. Cristian Pache’s bat won’t solve the problem. Drew Waters’ bat is capable of extending the lineup enough, but that still won’t happen in 2021.
Even so, if the market is there, I’d be surprised if they changed the plan this time around. I also have no idea what free agent spending will look like for any team after everything that has happened this year.