Mailbag Part 2: Free Agency, Pitching Prospects, Sleepers, Shuster
Thank you to everyone who submitted questions for today’s mailbag via Twitter. This is Part 2 of a mailbag to cap off October and begin November. Part 1 can be found here. Today’s portion discusses free agency, pitching prospects throughout the system, prospects working out on their own, and lots of Jared Shuster talk among other things.
Q: Do you see the Braves finally trading a prospect (Waters) for an impact player or ride it out with prove-it deals on the free agent market?
A: I continue to assume the Braves will hold onto their major prospects and make one- and two-year veteran signings until proven otherwise. At some point you want the team to invest in a lineup anchor like Marcell Ozuna long-term, but the strategy has worked for the most part so far, with Cole Hamels being the notable exception. Also, as I wrote Friday, I have no idea what the team’s finances look like or whether the front office can spend. I can’t begin to guess if they will be in the running for Ozuna or what the strategy might be this time around. Perhaps a loss in revenue means prospects will take on a more significant role, such as filling out the back of the rotation, the second catcher spot, etc. But they also can’t force a prospect to be ready. I’m sitting back and waiting to see how the offseason goes just like everybody else.
Q: Who’s the next big Braves arm?
A: Kyle Muller is my highest-graded pitching prospect who is knocking on the door. As I’ve said several times, I think he eventually settles into a high-leverage relief role for his career, but the Braves will likely let him try to start. The better bet to start long-term is Tucker Davidson, who is rounding out his arsenal and continuing to improve on his command. His late-season debut is a reminder that Davidson isn’t a guarantee to lock down a rotation spot. There is still development ahead of him, and I still see a back-end type, but there’s starter potential. Jared Shuster isn’t far behind as a starter prospect, too.
If you’re looking for a sleeper pitching prospect in the lower levels who could take off soon, Jared Johnson could be that guy. He’s been up to 99 recently and there continue to be whispers of his potential. I need to see him on a full-season mound to see what kind of depth the arsenal has.
Q: Is there an under-the-radar prospect who has a shot at making the club in a bench role?
A: Typically, if a prospect has a chance to make the big league roster in the spring, he’s not going to be under the radar that much. There’s really no prospect in that situation for 2021. That’s part of the reason why the Braves got a head start on the bench by signing Abraham Almonte. Braden Shewmake probably has another year or so before he’s in that conversation as a utility type. I can’t see the Braves banking on guys like Greyson Jenista, Trey Harris or C.J. Alexander, but they represent the best chance among anyone on my list because of age and proximity to the majors. Maybe Harris or Jenista have an outside shot? I would bet against it though.
Q: If we knew there would be a DH from here on, would you be comfortable giving Nelson Cruz multiple years?
A: The state of finances in baseball this offseason makes me wonder if Cruz will get multiple years again. If teams don’t pay up for free agents this winter, Cruz may have already seen his last multi-year contract. He’s consistently outperformed projections, contracts, age, etc., but me being a cautious type, I’d hesitate going beyond one year. Cruz would make for an excellent one-year signing for the Braves, though, to fill the void if the DH stays and Ozuna doesn’t return.
Q: Which sub-AA pitcher has the highest potential?
A: Jared Shuster is considered sub Double-A since he hasn’t pitched as a pro yet, so he’s the answer. I’m guessing he starts at either Double-A or Class-A Advanced, but either way he likely finishes 2021 at Double-A. He has starter potential with the highest-graded changeup in the system for me, a fastball that is into the mid-90s and a developing slider. If you’re talking about a pitcher not from the 2020 draft class, Victor Vodnik and Freddy Tarnok are currently on the same grade. I’m wait-and-see on Tarnok as a potential starter, but Vodnik has solid reliever traits with a big fastball and curve but average build. As I said earlier, Jared Johnson is a sleeper in the low levels who could emerge in 2021.
Q: What did a prospect like Mahki Backstrom do this year? Were they completely on their own?
A: Prospects not invited to the alternate site worked out on their own. They hit and threw at indoor facilities and neighborhood fields, and they worked out at facilities, at home or at local gyms. It was common for me to see minor leaguers from different orgs working out at my local gym. How “alone” they were in terms of development and workout plans depended on the org. Some orgs outlined plans for the players, kept a close watch on their workouts and held Zoom meetings with the players. Some orgs offered loose instruction and basically left them on their own. The Braves kept tabs on their prospects, and they know what kind of work they put in. Backstrom was among those who occasionally posted video of an indoor BP session. We realized that William Woods had grown into an impressive physical frame and was hitting 99 mph because he posted video from a field. Victor Vodnik posted video hitting mid-to-upper-90s in his driveway.
Q: What do you think of Jared Shuster? Any chance he hits majors in 2021? Or what prospect who did not pitch at all for Atlanta in 2020 has the best shot at making the starting rotation in 2021 (not Davidson)?
A: I’ve covered Shuster a good bit in this mailbag. As I wrote above, he has starter traits with three major league potential pitches, including the highest-graded changeup in the system. I don’t think the stuff is electric enough to be a mid-rotation lock, but he shows enough to be a major league starter. It won’t happen in 2021, though. A realistic goal should be to succeed at Double-A Mississippi either right away or by the end of the season.
There’s really no option for the last question other than Davidson. The only other possibility is Muller, but I highly doubt he’s in the rotation this coming April. I won’t be surprised if the Braves sign another veteran starter to a one-year deal. Bryse Wilson, Davidson and Muller would be the back-end competition.