Mailbag: Development, Underrated Position Players, Possible Call-ups, Pache Vs. Waters
Thank you to everyone for submitting questions for the BravesProspects Mailbag.
Q: Do you think the Braves have a problem developing pitching?
A: This has been a hot topic among Braves fans lately because of the command issues of Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint and so on. It probably deserves its own post, but I’ll provide a shortened version by saying no, not necessarily.
To start with, let’s go ahead and get one big point out of the way. The Braves turned over a huge portion of their player development staff over the past year. They hired a new PD boss in December in Ben Sestanovich, and they turned over the development old guard in favor of younger faces and perhaps fresher ideas. So, calling out development right now is the equivalent of calling out a general manager who was fired a year ago.
Secondly, there’s a noticeable recency bias. The Braves’ wave of pitching prospects that has been written about for multiple years has always included guys with command concerns. They’re throwing these guys into the deep end now to see if they sink or swim, and inconsistent outings from Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint, Bryse Wilson, Sean Newcomb and even Mike Foltynewicz have caused fans to question the coaching and why some of these guys haven’t developed their command further.
Because these struggles are on the biggest stage in a shortened season with heightened tension, more fans are noticing and yelling. I get it. I do. You always want the success rate to be higher when it comes to developing starting pitching.
But consider that among the wave, the Braves have developed two potential frontline starters in Mike Soroka and Max Fried, the latter of whom is quickly transforming into a traditional No. 1 with Cy Young considerations. This alone should be enough to consider the pitching prospect wave a success. Continue with Ian Anderson, who may not have a knockout pitch but has good feel to pitch and should settle into a solid starter role. Continue with Tucker Davidson, who has made tremendous developmental strides to become a legitimate starter prospect. Continue with Toussaint, who made big adjustments coming into the season to give himself a better chance to start long term. Will it be enough? I don’t know, but he’s closer to being a starter than ever before because of those adjustments. Continue with Wright, who I personally believe will figure it out and be a starter. It’s far from a guarantee at the moment, but that’s why he’s taking his lumps right now. It doesn’t always come right away like it did for Soroka. Sometimes it takes a while to figure it all out.
Pitchers with inconsistent command or a lack of reliable secondaries who succeed as starters in the minors are all the time becoming relievers in the majors. If the majority of prospects with mid-rotation potential actually reached their potential, we wouldn’t see Robbie Erlin getting starts for a playoff team or the Red Sox rotation in shambles. Pitching development is a fickle thing.
It’s OK to question if more of these pitching prospects should be further along in development. Organizations evaluate themselves in the same way. But do it with context. The Braves produced Soroka and Fried. That’s a huge victory. Beyond that, getting another starter or two out of the group and several reliable major league relievers should not be considered a failure at all.
Q: We are familiar with the big position prospects (Waters, Pache, Contreras), but are there any dark horse guys who could be solid big league players in the next year or two to look out for?
A: I don’t know if he’s a darkhorse guy anymore, but Bryce Ball is one of my highest-ranked position player prospects and probably the one who could reach the majors in the next couple years not named Waters, Pache and Contreras (along with Shea Langeliers). Ball still needs to establish himself in the upper levels with a full minor league season, and to answer bat speed questions against advanced pitching, but there’s everyday slugger potential if he hits. Jesse Franklin is a college draft pick who could move quickly if he hits. Whether he starts in the majors remains uncertain. The next wave of position player prospects is probably at least two years away if not more, but remember names like Michael Harris and Vaughn Grissom.
Q: Atlanta in majors have issues in rotation and possibility of Davidson and Anderson plugging that glaring hole, but besides service time does them being trade chips (possibly) have any reason why they aren’t being tried in rotation?
A: I guess it’s possible, but the Braves have long coveted their prospects and I struggle to believe they would trade so much of their future value during such a volatile season. That may also be why they’re slow to promote guys like Davidson and Anderson right now. Perhaps they want to let Wright and Toussaint take their lumps during what’s a weird and volatile year anyway, and a 60-game season allows for more bullpen games than normal. At some point you have to recognize that Luke Jackson can’t throw 40 pitches from the third to fifth innings every other day, and you have to make decisions. I think that’s when you see someone like Davidson or Anderson, or even Patrick Weigel.
Q: Pache seems to be getting all the love as Ender struggles. Is there a chance we see Drew Waters instead? Robbie Erlin is starting today, stranger things have happened…
A: If an outfield prospect gets called up, it’ll be Cristian Pache. He provides immediate, immense value from his defense and has power upside. Waters has looked better since spring training, when he was pressing a lot, but I still think he needs consistent reps on the minor league side for now.
Q: Who’s the first prospect that we haven’t seen before called up?
A: I take this to mean a prospect who would make his major league debut. I’ll stick to what I’ve wanted for a while and say Tucker Davidson. I continue to add that Patrick Weigel should be considered a legit option right now, although I think his future is ultimately in the bullpen.
Q: In the minors what did you see in Camargo and Riley and what should we expect from them down the road
A: I thought Camargo would be a super-utility guy with excellent defense at second and third and could play short in a pinch, with enough bat to hold onto the role. He’s not doing a good job of maintaining his swing and eye, and I think focus is an issue. If he can’t develop consistency at the plate, I don’t think he’s long for a career in Atlanta. I was on the fence about Riley out of the draft and didn’t come around until he reached Gwinnett. I thought his adjustments and track record would work in his favor in the majors, but he’s not adjusting to major league pitching and continues to get caught between pitches. His window is smaller than most because of average bat speed, so he either needs to adjust and simplify or he’s going to bust.
Q: I know you and others were high on William Contreras coming into this season. Did his major league appearance exceed your expectations and, if so, did it accelerate his path to the majors?
A: Considering the adjustments he made at the plate coming into the year, what he did in his brief look did not surprise me. He pressed and swung at everything because it was his first major league assignment, but the way he adjusted in-pitch and utilized his mechanical changes against major league pitching was phenomenal. This is a guy with legitimate everyday catcher potential. He may take a tandem spot with Travis d’Arnaud next year, but I’d like to see him get a full minor league season with his new swing and be ready to take over in 2022.