Mailbag: '21 OF, Jackson's Future, Ball, Weigel, Shewmake And More
Braves Prospects Mailbag is a monthly Q&A answering reader questions from post comments and Twitter. Thanks to everyone who participated in the first edition.
Q: Aside from the size, how similar are Tyler Owens and Victor Vodnik? Are they on a similar track (with Vodnik being a year ahead)?
A: This is a great observation. Here are my current grades on both:
Victor Vodnik: 60 fb, 55 cb, 45+ ch, 50 cmd, 93-96 t97 – 40 overall
Tyler Owens: 60 fb, 55 cb, 40 ch, 40 cmd, 93-96 t98 – 35+ overall
The obvious difference is Vodnik’s command. He has a present feel for his stuff, especially the way he can manipulate his fastball, that Owens hasn’t reached yet. This gives me more confidence in Vodnik reaching his role as a major league reliever, while Owens remains a bit of a lottery ticket with lively stuff but a more murky path. Both are tracking as relievers in some form, though, and this question should have a clearer answer by this time next year.
Q: How do you/does one judge the distinction between raw power and game power when evaluating a prospect that's new to you?
A: Besides the clearer tools like run and arm, raw power is one of the easier tools to evaluate and can usually be solidified quickly. After a couple rounds of batting practice, I knew Alex Jackson and Bryce Ball had 70 raw. It’s not always that simple, because younger guys sometimes have room to fill out projectable frames and add strength, so you have to account for that. Determining future game power is a more complicated endeavor. You keep the raw grade in mind, but you also factor in his future hit tool, swing plane and approach. If a hitter has a below-average hit tool, doesn’t make consistent contact on the barrel or has a flat swing, you tick down the game power grade accordingly. It’s tough to peg that grade when the hit tool is inconsistent, but that’s part of the challenge.
Q: The three starting outfielders for the Braves on Opening Day 2021 are...?
A: I have such a love/hate relationship with these types of questions. So many things can happen to make this answer so wrong a year from now. If all goes as planned, the Braves would most certainly prefer to have an Opening Day 2021 outfield of Ronald Acuña Jr. (RF), Cristian Pache (CF) and Drew Waters (LF). I don’t think this is far fetched considering where Pache and Waters are in their development. It would take a surprising developmental downturn to prevent either from being in the driver’s seat for a starting spot in spring 2021. If I have to pick one to return to Triple-A to start 2021, it’d be Waters by a very slim margin because of Pache’s defense.
Q: What are the Braves going to do with AJax? It’s seems as if he was going to have his chance it would have happened by now.
A: Jackson’s organizational future could ultimately be decided in 2020. He’s clearly the third catcher on the depth chart and the Braves have yet to show the confidence to make him a clear No. 2. He could fill a similar role this year by being the up/down guy but, with two possible starters on the way in Shea Langeliers and William Contreras, the Braves owe it to him by 2021 to give him the chance to be that clear No. 2 or ship him out. The possibility remains that he steps into that role next season, but I’m not sure that he’s a long-term Brave.
Q: Make a prediction: What #Braves prospect will make the biggest jump in the org in 2020?
A: I’ve said a few times now that Vaughn Grissom is one of my big sleepers for 2020. He has the package of tools and present feel for the game to get noticed quickly. He won’t get past Low-A Rome this season, but a strong performance in his first full pro season would mean getting a lot more attention. As far as biggest organizational jump, Bryce Ball comes to mind as a player who could get to Double-A Mississippi in short order. Don’t sleep on Tucker Davidson being a viable major league option this year either.
Q: Thoughts on where Bryce Ball starts out this year? Fire Frogs maybe with Langeliers?
A: Class-A Advanced Florida seems like the logical choice and, yes, with Langeliers. If Ball performs, he should see Mississippi at some point this year.
Q: Are you putting any stock in what Jenista has done so far this spring? Feel like he’s had a nice spring so far and obviously needs a big year in 2020.
A: I don’t think it’s a total fluke because he showed signs of adjustments and development in the second half of 2019. He seems to be finding more comfort with his swing and approach. What that ultimately means, though, is still up for debate. He’s in a bit of a now-or-never situation and needs to perform to get past a future Triple-A career. I still think that’s the more realistic bet right now, but it’s nice to see development.
Q: what do you think of Weigel so far, and what do you expect his role will be this year? if he keeps pitching like this you gotta think he carves out a role on the team, maybe replacing Tomlin
A: Yeah, I concluded in the second half of 2019 that Patrick Weigel had nothing left to prove in the minors and needed his major league shot. This spring has only boosted that feeling. He has the stuff and mentality to be a solid late-innings reliever or valuable multi-inning guy. There’s no doubt he’ll get innings in Atlanta this season, but whether it’s full time or up/down depends on others. He should get his full-time shot by the second half of this year or spring 2021.
Q: Touki technically isn’t a prospect. However, if his good spring continues would you leave camp with him in the rotation. Feels like he needs the chance or a trade.
A: For the sake of everyone involved, I think Touki Toussaint should be moved to a full-time relief role right now. The back and forth last year did no one any favors. Put him in the bullpen, let him air it out and watch his incredible stuff play at a high level. He still has key late-innings potential. And yes, give him a chance to be that guy at some point this season.
Q: with such young guys in the middle of the infield in Atlanta, do you see the team moving some of the prospects? Also, what outfield prospects (Waters, Pache, etc) could be trade bait if they are in the thick of a pennant races
A: Braden Shewmake is the only middle infield prospect worth trade attention. He has helium and I would pull the trigger if the deal were right, but the Braves seem high on him and I doubt he moves. I think Pache and Waters are untouchable at this point, being so close to the majors and with the tantalizing possibility of an Acuña, Pache, Waters outfield within grasp. If I had to choose possible trade options from position players, Contreras, Jackson, Trey Harris and Greyson Jenista come to mind. The more obvious scenario is dipping into the deep pitching pool if the Braves trade prospects. There are plenty to choose from.
Q: Is Shewmake a big league regular in the future?
A: This has very quickly become a point of debate. I’m still of the belief that Shewmake is not a big league regular and is best suited as a utility type capable of playing around the infield at a solid level while offering consistent contact and gap power. What holds me back is the lack of an impact bat. He has an above-average-potential hit tool that could develop even further, but it’s a level swing plane and contact-oriented approach that limits his raw power. Also, while he’s reliable at shortstop with great instincts and a soft glove, his fringe range would show over the course of a 162-game season in the majors. He’s likely better suited for second base if he played every day, and I think there would be more value in his ability to play around the diamond.
Q: Where do you think Contreras and Langaliers start the season, and where would you start them?
A: Seems likely that Contreras returns to Mississippi and Langeliers goes to Florida. After the assignment to Double-A, you can’t start Contreras back at Florida now, especially with Langeliers likely being the guy there. Contreras has a big challenge ahead of him and needs to prove he can keep his head above water there.