Mailbag: 2020 Development, Draft Strategy, Future Roster
I had such a good response on the last call for mailbag questions that I couldn’t get to all of the great questions. Therefore, here’s an extra August mailbag for your reading pleasure.
Q: Which prospect does the lack of MiLB season hurt the most developmentally? Is there anyone it may “help” get a fresh start after not having the pressure for a year?
A: Drew Waters is definitely at the top of the list of prospects hurt by no minor league season. He needed a full season at Triple-A Gwinnett to continue to work on his approach against upper-level pitching, especially after such a rough spring training. It may not prevent an opportunity for him at the major league level in 2021, but instead of potentially playing his way into a role, he’s stuck having to prove himself again entering next season. The lower-level hitters like Michael Harris, Vaughn Grissom and Bryce Ball were looking to establish themselves in their first full season and instead lost a year of seeing pro pitching on a consistent basis, although getting reps at the alternate site helps some. Fringe guys like C.J. Alexander, Trey Harris and Greyson Jenista may be hurt the most. The 2020 season may have been the last chance for some players like them to get in a position for a possible call-up.
I can’t see a lost year as helping anyone. Maybe a pitcher who needed the extra time to get fully healthy or is working on increased velo, like Freddy Tarnok hitting 99 a while back. Perhaps a young hitter like Michael Harris is benefiting from the instruction at the alternate site. Still, nothing beats getting on the field when it comes to development. Tarnok needs to prove he can hold 95 deep into his starts and get well past 100 innings. Harris needs to see a college first-round arm in August when he’s fatigued. These guys need game reps.
Q: Do you think going with college kids is a strategy that sticks long-term for an org that’s always favored HS?
A: Organizational draft strategy tends to lean toward scouting director tendencies. You’ll see occasional small shifts according to that year’s draft class, but it’s not hard to pick up on org strategies. The Braves are certainly leaning college-heavy at the top of their drafts lately, and it’s starting to become a trend. With Dana Brown leading the scouting department, I think it will be a trend that continues. At the same time, there seems to be a solid ability to recognize ceiling talent in later rounds and plucking guys who fall because of bonus demands. That may not have the impact of hitting on your first-rounders, but that’s how you infuse a system’s lower levels and create depth. Based on early returns (scouting reports), this scouting department has done a good job.
Q: Has/will the short season hurt some of the prospects in getting a normal September late-season call-up for the big league experience at the plate
A: Roster expansion typically doesn’t do a lot for prospects in the way of on-field development. If the team is in the playoff hunt, they’ll get an occasional start or pinch-hit/run appearance, but they’re not going to be on the field every day when a team is jockeying for a playoff spot unless someone is hurt. Pitching prospects are mostly shut down by then and usually just get a few relief appearances. The value comes in being around the established major leaguers, watching their daily routines and how they handle themselves on and off the field, and getting major league coaching eyes on you. While that is valuable, there are more important aspects of development that prospects are missing this year, notably the lack of game reps.
Q: It’s the first day of 2022 and the lineup is made solely of guys currently as Braves (no trades or free agents). What’s your prediction on what roster looks like? (Rotation, starting lineup, and any key bullpen or bench guys)
A: This is like the exercise Baseball America does in its handbook every year where the writers fill out a future lineup and rotation with nothing but players within the org. There’s not a ton of value to it, but it’s fun and helps show what kind of depth a system has. I’ll give it a shot:
Lineup
C - William Contreras
1B - Freddie Freeman
2B - Ozzie Albies
3B - Austin Riley
SS - Dansby Swanson
LF - Drew Waters
CF - Cristian Pache
RF - Ronald Acuña Jr.
DH - Bryce Ball
Key Bench
C - Shea Langeliers
INF - Braden Shewmake
OF - Jesse Franklin
Rotation
1. Max Fried
2. Mike Soroka
3. Ian Anderson
4. Tucker Davidson
5. Kyle Wright/Jared Shuster
Bullpen
Late Innings - Will Smith
Late Innings - Touki Toussaint
Late Innings - Jasseel De La Cruz
Late Innings - Kyle Muller
Late Innings - A.J. Minter (EDIT: Forgot Minter. He should be included.)
Mid - Sean Newcomb
Mid - Bryse Wilson
Mid/Long - Patrick Weigel
Mid/Long - Huascar Ynoa
I made the easy call and assumed Riley would settle in at third base, but there’s also nothing behind him within the org for several years. Vaughn Grissom may be the closest competition and he won’t be ready. I also made the easy call in creating a catcher tandem between Contreras and Langeliers. The 2022 season will probably be the chance for one or both to establish themselves as Atlanta’s catcher(s). I could see a situation with Contreras being the primary guy with the bat and Langeliers being the defensive guy who plays every few days.
I still think Wright figures it out, so he’s in my rotation. If he doesn’t figure it out, you can slide Jared Shuster in that spot. He should be close by then. Wright would move to the bullpen. Bryce Elder may also be knocking on the door. Also remember names for the pen like Spencer Strider, Victor Vodnik, Freddy Tarnok, Daysbel Hernandez and Kasey Kalich. Pitching is so volatile, so I’d be happy if I got even a couple names correct in the bullpen.