Kyle Muller, Tucker Davidson Live AB Video: Notes and Observations
Pitchers and catchers report very soon, and some are already at spring sites. That means pitchers are starting to ramp up their work in preparation for spring training, including more throwing, more effort and live ABs.
Kyle Muller and Tucker Davidson are well-known Driveline guys, and they’re reaping the benefits of Driveline’s new pop-up lab in Texas for those who want to train before spring camp. We get to reap the benefits of video posted to social media of their work in Texas.
Live AB video is extremely valuable offseason material. Pitchers can post video of max-effort velo inside a facility showing them hitting 99 mph, which is good for displaying arm strength. But what I love is the live AB video that shows them facing hitters and throwing their entire repertoire over a set number of pitches.
Keep in mind pitchers ramp up their velocity from winter through spring. A pitcher sitting below his usual range in January or February is not a concern.
In the video, Muller sat 93-97, which is outstanding for this time of year. The fastball has its typical natural arm-side run and is lively around the zone. Nothing about the fastball is out of the ordinary for Muller here, and the velo is great to see.
Muller’s hard, biting curve was around 79 with slider-like, three-quarters tilt and above-average depth. It flashed late break and dropped hard into the zone and below the knees. He will occasionally lose spin on it and hang it or slow his actions, but I graded the pitch above-average potential this offseason and see more of the same here.
The biggest positive from the video among all pitches for Muller or Davidson is Muller’s changeup. It sat 86-89 and flashed plus depth to the fade. When the pitch flashed plus, it disappeared late out of the zone with a firm sink. He showed better command of the pitch than I’ve seen in previous outings between sinking it below bats to the arm-side and dropping it glove-side almost like a slider. He maintained his arm speed and slot very well, too. Despite command woes, I graded Muller’s changeup at 50 potential in the offseason because of his natural arm speed and effective firmness to the fade. If he shows this kind of command of the pitch in actual games, it’s a big development to his arsenal.
At the same time, remember this is a live AB situation. Muller has to show he can command his stuff in games to get past the reliever risk. I have him tabbed as a future late-innings reliever right now.
Davidson’s live ABs were hit or miss. Like Muller, his fastball velo is in a great place right now, sitting 90-95 coming over the top with life up in the zone. It showed that concerning lack of life arm-side and at the knees at 90-91 that produced a rough major league debut in 2020. But when he’s pumping 94-95 up, it’s an effective pitch.
Davidson’s slider has come along well. It was the biggest positive of his debut and was his biggest positive in this video. The pitch sat 84-88 with solid three-quarters tilt and effective bite, capable of inducing some whiffs when the bite comes late and drops hard to the glove-side. He does show some wrap at release and needs to get the slot up a touch more consistently, but he’s come a long way with the pitch in a short amount of time. I graded it 50 this winter, but it could grade out higher before he graduates.
The curveball remains his weapon, an above-average offering that flashes plus. He gets downward break and plus depth on it, coming from the same high slot as his fastball for the most part. It’s tough to pull the trigger when it starts so high and drops like a hammer. Davidson does need to continue to shore up his command of it. As evident in his debut, the pitch can lose bite at times and show early, which makes it easy to lay off.
His changeup continues to lag behind. I have it at 40+ because it can flash average when he locates it down with average fade. But as shown in the video and in previous appearances, he tends to drop his arm slot and slow his actions on the pitch. You can get away with it in the lower levels, but it’s mostly a show-me pitch in the majors. That’s why the development of the slider has been so important to his profile.
I’ve become much more positive about Davidson’s potential over the past year or two because of how he has turned himself into a legitimate major league arm. When the fastball pops, he drops his curve like a hammer and the slider bites hard, he has a starter’s arsenal, somewhere in the back-end range. However, I continue a wait-and-see approach on the actual starter potential. The stuff’s liveliness continues to come and go at times, as does his command over a full season. Davidson has done a tremendous job to turn himself into a starter prospect, but relief continues to be a realistic fallback play.