COVID-19 & Baseball: Amateur, Draft Implications
In a two-parter covering the latest on coronavirus implications in baseball, I began Wednesday with a look at how the situation is affecting the majors and minors. Today, I look at how it’s impacting the draft and amateur ball. The implications are just as big for non-professionals, and that in turn affects the pro side.
First, the major decisions:
MLB draft can be moved back from June 10 to as late as July 20 with a signing date as late as Aug. 1.
Rounds will be reduced from 40 to as few as five. The round total isn’t yet in stone and can increase to something like 10, but five seems like the best bet. The 2021 draft can be shortened to as few as 20 rounds and moved to the same later date.
Signing bonus slot values for 2020-21 will remain the same as the 2019 draft. Payments will be delayed. The max up-front payment is $100,000. Fifty percent of the remaining amount is to be paid July 1 of the next year and the rest on July 1 of the year after that.
Undrafted free agents are maxed at $20,000 in 2020-21.
MLB has the right to hold a combine-style showcase in 2020-21 for draft-eligible players in the top 300 medical program.
College players have been granted an extra year of eligibility.
MLB can delay the 2020-21 international signing period as late as January 2021 and can delay the following period by six months.
The current situation provides MLB with the opportunity to implement its changes to the minor league, international and draft sides. These decisions show MLB is being opportunistic ahead of the imminent minor league contraction, which in turn affects the draft and all of amateur baseball. An international draft has been talked about for some time, and this situation allows MLB to put it on track for what seems to be 2023.
The most impactful news is the decision to reduce the draft to as few as five rounds this year and as few as 20 rounds in 2021. It makes sense to shorten the event considering an influx of players into pro ball late this summer would mean a massive logjam in the lower levels with possibly no one on the field. It wouldn’t make sense to draft 40 players, sign the majority of them and have them sit at home, vie for playing time among a huge short-season roster, or be forced to release many of them or others.
It makes the most sense in the event of minor league contraction. Teams have no reason to draft and sign that many players when they’d be released a year or two later when affiliate numbers are cut. If contraction happens, this is the ideal time to limit the number of players entering pro ball. All of this is being crafted with finances in mind. Owners want to cut expenses right now with no games being played. They also want to cut expenses by limiting the number of bonuses and streamlining the player development process.
The same can be said for the international decisions. Pushing back the signing period allows MLB to delay bonuses until the winter at a time when owners are likely pushing for such maneuvers. The signing period delay also subsequently pushes back the following period, which sets up the timing of an international draft for 2023. This of course hasn’t been announced, but the timeline makes sense.
It should come as no surprise that the amateur level gets hit hardest by these decisions. They have no representation in these matters. Owners want to save a dollar on bonuses whenever they can. As Keith Law and others have written, these decisions have a major impact on amateur players while hardly affecting owners’ bottom lines:
“All this would do is reduce the number of players available to minor league teams this summer and next spring, which might suit MLB’s long-term goal of eliminating minor-league teams, but doesn’t help with the longer-term, structural issue of ensuring the talent pool is stronger and more diverse. It also greatly diminishes the potential for players who aren’t drafted in the first round to still land first-round bonuses as over-slot guys later in the draft, because teams can’t save slot money by choosing college seniors in rounds 6 through 10 (as the Mets did last year) or wait and take a passed-over player in the eleventh round and use any savings from the first ten rounds to pay more than the slot for rounds 11 onward.
Deferring portions of the bonus payments into 2022 does address MLB’s cash flow questions, although it’s a drop in the proverbial bucket; the total of all slot values for the top ten rounds of the 2019 draft was $266 million, less than twice the median team payroll for 2019. Deferring $3-4 million per team into 2022 amounts to a delay in payment of less than 1 percent of the typical team’s cash outflows, which is a rounding error on an MLB team’s cash flow statement but a significant hit to any individual prospect, who is essentially giving the signing team an interest-free loan for two years for the amount of the deferred payout.”
All of this theoretically sets up a more streamlined player development process. It would mean fewer high school kids getting that 11th-round overslot money and instead sticking with their college commitments. There’s more college player data available than ever, and development within college is getting better by the year. The return on an org’s investment would be greater with more players competing over multiple years in college, allowing the best of them to potentially climb the minor league ranks more quickly. There would be fewer low-level minor league affiliates and the players would be ready to handle full-season pro ball at a higher rate.
Players are incentivized to play college ball based on all of this. Many will choose the junior college route to be draft eligible in a year. Many will likely transfer to different programs based on playing time. Juniors who would’ve gotten that six-figure bonus are now faced with a $20,000 bonus max, so they’ll play as seniors. Current seniors will return and play their final seasons.
College baseball’s depth of talent should dramatically increase. It’ll also be extremely tough on the players. Their futures have been turned upside down because of these decisions. Many could get pushed out by better incoming freshmen with more eligibility. Some could play overseas and I’m sure many will choose independent ball.
What about from a Braves perspective?
The Braves have four picks in the first five rounds and nine in the first 10. Their pool for the first five rounds is $4,114,100. In the first 10 rounds, it’s $5,039,000. A five-round draft versus a 10-round draft impacts the teams in different ways based on their numbers of picks and allotments, but it impacts the Braves at one of the highest rates. The more picks the better.
Braves international spending is at 50 percent capacity for this period, so they aren’t heavy players in the delayed period. In this scenario, they would have their full allotment for one final signing period before a draft. If the talent pool allows, it might behoove them to spend heavily in their final opportunity before the draft limits that ability.
The $20,000 max bonus for undrafted players creates a bit of a free-for-all market for lesser players willing to take the money. Player development kingdoms like the Yankees and Dodgers would seemingly benefit from this as they pluck lesser players and attempt to mold them. The Braves haven’t proven to be on that level yet, but it becomes important if they want to infuse their system through this channel. Analytical scouting is also heavily relied upon during the draft now, because in-person looks are almost non-existent for this class. This was becoming the trend anyway, but those already proven to be ahead of the curve in this department have a leg up when it matters most.