Can Johan Camargo Adjust To The Scouting Report?
Johan Camargo backed up a league-average start to his major league career at the plate in 2017 by hitting .272/.349/.457 with a 115 wRC+ over a full season in 2018. He hit 19 home runs and appeared to be on his way to outperforming his minor league numbers and developing into a solid everyday or multi-role player.
In 2019, he hit .233/.279/.384 with a 67 wRC+ and was even sent to Triple-A Gwinnett for a couple weeks. He managed to hit even worse in the small sample of 2020.
What gives?
I came into this post with the intention of discovering a huge flaw in Camargo’s swing. All of that time spent served as a reminder that sometimes it’s as simple as not adjusting to major league pitching, a fatal flaw for many hitters who start strong at the highest level.
Camargo came into the league battering four-seamers and two-seamers in most quadrants of the zone. He saw 57% fastballs in 2017 and covered the zone and around it with solid barrel consistency by hunting velo. The fastball percentage dropped to 51% in 2018, but a noticeable chunk of that difference was made up in curveballs, which plays into another Camargo strength by dropping the bat head to slower spin down and in.
The report got out, pitchers adjusted, and Camargo’s fastball count dropped to 48% in 2019. He saw a sizable uptick in spin and off-speed across the board. As a result, his ability to hit the fastball declined, because he was often caught in between velo and multiple secondaries. One especially marked change was a decreased ability to consistently center velo back up the middle, a sign of not timing pitches well.
The approach to Camargo only got more brutal in the short 2020 stretch. The percentage of spin to which he could drop the bat head decreased, and he was getting beat by fastballs and cutters in, and changeups and splitters down and away. The two zone maps below tell just a small example of the change in pitcher approach by only including changeups between 2017 and 2019.
If you compare maps between 2017 and 2020 and include splitters with changeups, there’s a significant change in concentration to middle zone just below the knees. This is one part of the equation. The other:
These two maps compare cutter usage against Camargo from 2017 to 2019-20. I included lefties as well as righties to show some boring in on his hands on the right side of the plate, too. But there’s a significant concentration of hard cutters eating away at his thumbs, and it pairs with a concentration of four-seamers inside. Mix this inside velo with changeups and splitters down, and it’s easy to see what the report is on Camargo. This applies to both sides of the plate.
And he has yet to show signs of adjusting. The result of constantly being between pitches, but not seeing a significant change in whiffs, is consistently weaker contact and a drop in exit velocity.
I could go into detail on Camargo’s swing. I went through tons of video of his swing from 2018 to now in an attempt to identify inconsistencies. It’s no secret that there’s a lot of pre-pitch movement, and he’s had multiple setups from his rookie year to now. I identified a few different setups as he reached his load, ranging from a drastic back leg bend and bent back that led to an uncoiling motion at fire, to a stiff back leg, bat on the shoulder and upright posture before fire. These changes affect head movement, being able to see the ball consistently well, and the ability to produce a consistent bat path.
At the end of the day, I think the league recognized a long bat path to the zone and inconsistent load, and they exploited holes with velo in and off-speed down and away.
I don’t know the answer to this problem. My first thought is to simplify by minimizing the load and balancing him out front to back better, similar to adjustments made by William Contreras. The trick is pulling it off without taking away his athleticism at the plate.
Whatever the answer, adjustments have to be made to readjust to the report. It’s been said many times that baseball is a game of adjustments between pitchers and hitters. The league figures you out, you have to adjust and beat it back. Right now, Camargo isn’t doing that. It needs to happen soon.