Braves Prospects Mailbag: Strider, Pache, Waters, Harris, More
Thank you to everyone for participating in the Braves Prospects mailbag. Topics include (lots of) Spencer Strider, Cristian Pache, Drew Waters, Michael Harris and more.
Q: What would they be looking for from Pache and Waters to earn a call-up?
A: I’ll start by saying that we probably won’t see Drew Waters this season unless it’s a late-season call. I think the org is aware that they need to take it easy on him and let him get a year of Triple-A success under his belt. His numbers have been all over the map, but at the end of the day he’s slashing fairly well and has been looking more comfortable lately while facing older competition. If he keeps his head above water at Gwinnett, he should be considered a candidate for a starting job in early 2022.
For Pache, just consistency. He reverted to the framework of a previous swing (his best swing) immediately upon returning to Gwinnett, and the results have mostly been promising when he’s able to stay on the field. I think his swing is in a better place now, and he’s timing better, so it’s a matter of consistently producing and staying on the field before he returns to Atlanta. As long as he doesn’t tank, we will probably see him later in the season, especially if the Braves are out of the race.
Q: Most surprising prospect in the system and the one that’s closest to a breakout?
A: Spencer Strider comes to mind in terms of a surprise. It was known that he could throw gas and had a good breaking ball, but I’m not sure anyone expected him to come out filling the zone at 97-100 and ripping off power breakers. I previously had him as a reliever because of so many unknowns, and the reliever risk is obviously still there, but I didn’t expect to be throwing such high grades on his stuff and command.
Shea Langeliers also deserves a mention. He’s a future everyday catcher because of the glove and arm, but he has overhauled his swing and is mashing at a challenging level. Indigo Diaz also gets a nod here.
Closest to a breakout? I keep going back to Vaughn Grissom. He’s holding his own at Low-A with good at-bats and a good swing. He knows the zone very well for his age and has been steady across the board. Once he taps into his raw power, I think he will jump in rankings.
Q: If Spencer Strider goes to Double-A and has 80% of the success he’s had, is he a top 100 prospect? What would you put his FV?
Is Strider going to be ranked our top pitching prospect by season’s end? Also, what do you think his FV will be?
Strider’s big league comparison?
A: I wrote up a full scouting report on Strider in May, so his FV is here. Nothing has changed from that report. Based on my opinion of his profile and FV, I think Strider could very well be a top 100 prospect at some point. If he continues to perform similarly in the upper levels, he should enter those ranks before he graduates.
I currently have one pitcher in the same grade category as Strider and that is Kyle Muller, who I would put above Strider right now based on proximity to majors. A lot could change between now and the end of the season, but that is where I currently have them.
I usually avoid comps. I’ve been telling people recently that 2021 Huascar Ynoa seems like a reasonable goal for Strider if he remains a starter. If he ends up in the bullpen, you could name dozens of hard-throwing, late-inning guys with two power pitches.
Q: Which Harris makes it to the bigs first, Trey or Michael?
A: Trey Harris has had his moments this year, but he’s 25 years old and slashing .237/.320/.290 at Double-A. That door is closing quickly. It’s a shame, because he’s a good dude who works hard and knows how to get a lot out of his skill set. No 2020 season hurt him tremendously.
Michael Harris probably stays at High-A Rome the majority of the season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he gets a call to Mississippi at some point, especially if he maintains his massive contact rate. I’ll answer the question by saying Michael, although I have his ETA at early 2023.
Q: What do you think about Justin Dean? All he does is get on base, steal bases and play great defense. He’s even shown some pop. I know he Ks a good bit. I know he’s a college guy and he’s a little older than his peers. But at some point you can’t ignore the production, right?
A: I’ve said several times that it’s noteworthy that the Braves invited Dean to spring training and kept him in camp for so long. The org obviously likes him. It seems that I undervalued his potential to be a major leaguer after getting looks at Rome in 2019. I wrote then that he had bench outfielder potential, but I wasn’t sold on his ability to hit his way to the majors. He’s now slashing .260/.382/.397 with 13 extra-base hits, 17 walks and 12 stolen bases at Double-A.
Is he a future regular in center field? I don’t think so. I undervalued his ability to hit right away at Double-A, but I continue to believe the bat is a bit too light to play every day. Is he a major leaguer? This is a definite possibility. He has 70 speed, ranges very well in center and gets on base. That’s a major league profile, perhaps as a solid, reliable fourth outfielder. Credit to Dean for developing so well and handling the Double-A test.
Q: Do you think Braden Shewmake will move up to Triple-A at some point this year? His numbers don’t look great, but seems like he’s also had some really bad BABIP luck.
A: Shewmake’s timing was considerably off over the first month-plus as he worked to find comfort with his tweaked swing mechanics. Everything was rolled over, beaten into the ground or whiffed. He’s starting to show signs of getting on time and finding more barrels, and the increased loft and separation is resulting in more pop when he does barrel up. I know some were hoping Shewmake would move quickly, but he needs to spend the full season at Double-A and try to build on and maintain his recent success.