Braves Player Development Could Be Undergoing A Philosophy Change
No doubt there has been frustration among Braves fans about the major league rotation. It’s not a stretch to say it’s been in shambles for most of the year, bailed out often by one of the best offenses in baseball.
Also no doubt the Braves front office knows this better than anyone, despite not adding anyone except Tommy Milone at the trade deadline. It’s clear now that the goal was to get pieces back at the most opportune time, with Cole Hamels and Max Fried coming off the injured list this week, Kyle Wright showing signs of better performance, and perhaps a return of Mike Foltynewicz. In a year of major revenue losses and no fans in seats, the Braves seem to be treating these last two weeks of the regular season as their trade deadline.
But getting to that point has been rough. I don’t have to give you stats on the rotation. Everyone knows. And part of the frustration from fans involves not calling up one of their better pitching prospects while the likes of Robbie Erlin and Josh Tomlin (who is a perfectly fine reliever but shouldn’t be trying to navigate lineups two to three times) have received starts. Those complaints continued Monday night with Touki Toussaint again showing he’s likely a reliever.
This also spilled over into their center field situation for much of the season as Ender Inciarte received plate appearances on a nightly basis while the team’s top prospect sometimes sat in the stands as a taxi squad member. (To be fair, he was the only available position player on the 40-man.)
So why have the Braves kept prospects like Tucker Davidson and Cristian Pache down when there have been clear needs at the major league level? It could be an acknowledgement that this season is a circus with expanded playoffs and basically a guaranteed postseason spot. It could also be a sign of a philosophy change.
I wrote back in February about Atlanta’s turnover in scouting and player development over the past year or two, as well as the inconsistency in prospect assignments from the previous group. There has been considerable change in player development over the past year, most notably at the top with the hiring of Ben Sestanovich as director and another notable hiring in Paul Davis as pitching coordinator, who comes from the Cardinals and Mariners as an analytics-based guy as opposed to the old guard previously in the department.
There were cases of aggressive or inconsistent player assignments from the previous group. There’s also somewhat of a case to be made about the effectiveness of that group’s pitching development, although I think it’s largely overblown. Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Ian Anderson as rotation fixtures (and whatever Wright will become), and what will likely be a good cast of relievers, should not be considered a failure. Front offices bring in their own choices for these departments, and I think that, along with adding fresh faces, new ideas and analytics, is the motivation for the turnover. The same happened in scouting.
With that said, we could see shifts in philosophies regarding development. We’ve already seen it in scouting with draft choices from this year and last. The previous group was often aggressive on moving prospects up, but with the acknowledgement of a small sample, we could see the opposite in this group.
Davidson appeared close to ready after a solid spring training, where he showed a continued uptick in stuff and a deepening arsenal. The fastball has plus potential by hitting mid-90s and touching higher, going above barrels with ride and life. The curveball is at least above average if not plus, tunneling off the four-seam fastball very effectively, while the changeup is behind but enough to be a usable change of pace.
A notable change has been the slider’s development into a fourth major league pitch, showing average this spring with short, sweeping tilt and average bite. It’s a great decision to develop the pitch to get hitters off the fastball/curve combination, which is exactly what Max Fried did. The pitch did need to come along more before it could be deemed a reliable major league weapon and used like Fried’s. That, along with continued development of command and control, has been the focus for Davidson at the alternate site this season. The Braves have said as much.
So, while fans clamored for Davidson to get a call while the rotation failed to get past the third inning time and again, development stayed patient and has worked with him to round out his arsenal before getting that call.
The same can be said for Pache. The Braves have watched Inciarte roll over hittable pitches while not providing the same level of center field defense we’ve seen in the past. However, they stayed patient and kept Pache down aside from a brief call and the taxi squad trips, both out of necessity.
The only reason to keep Pache down surrounds the development of his hit tool. The Braves may feel he needs continued reps and instruction at the Triple-A level instead of being thrown into the majors. I will readily admit I joined the chorus calling for Pache, because his defense alone would provide net value to the team regardless of his bat. But if development feels he isn’t ready to face major league pitching on a daily basis, you don’t call him up just because the player above him is struggling. This isn’t an observation of mine on Pache’s skills, just a possible line of thinking.
There’s also the line of thought on Anderson. The Braves felt he was the best he’s been as a prospect in mid-August. They called him up because they felt he was ready at that moment, not because of the rotation situation.
Holding back these prospects could also be a symptom of 2020. It should be noted they aren’t getting regular game reps at Gwinnett. Perhaps Davidson or Pache are in the majors today if they were performing on-field against an opposition. Perhaps the Braves don’t want to burn some of their service time for a weird season with expanded playoffs.
But there is the possibility this could be the new normal for Braves prospects. Instead of being thrown into the fire like some prospects have in the past, whether in the majors or a higher level of the minors, perhaps this player development department prefers to see a more well-rounded, better-developed prospect before they get a call to Atlanta. I don’t have actual knowledge of a potential philosophy change, and this is only for discussion sake, but it’s something to watch going forward.