2019 Draft Review: It's A Numbers Game

The 2019 draft was a departure from past approaches to the June event for the Braves.

Strategies change for organizations depending on the talent pool and scouting departments. Some remain more consistent than others. You can typically count on a certain type of player to be selected in the first few rounds for some teams, while others are more flexible.

The Braves developed a reputation for banking on prep products early, especially homegrown ones. The scouting department hasn’t seen the same constant faces leading the strategy since then, so draft approach has changed in past years. That was again the case in 2019, when four of the first five picks were floor college guys, followed by overslot prep fliers in the later rounds.

Player development has the weighty task of molding those prep fliers. It’s needed, because the lower levels currently lack the toolsy profiles of the upper levels, and depth has become a concern. There are intriguing possibilities among that group, however, and the Braves seem to have hit on their first couple picks.

Shea Langeliers is already proving to be the best pick from the Braves class. Popped ninth overall from Baylor, Langeliers is quickly establishing himself as an impact prospect behind the plate. He had the best catcher’s glove in the draft class, potentially reaching plus in his prime with a 65 arm. What is propelling him to new heights is the bat, which is showing better post-draft with a short, quick, balanced swing geared for contact, and above-average raw power. He has the chance to become the best prospect in the system before he graduates, which is what you want to see from your top pick.

Similarly, although on a slightly lesser scale, Braden Shewmake has impressed post-draft and has seen his reports improve quite favorably. He was seen as a reach at 21st overall out of Texas A&M, but Shewmake’s defense was above the pre-draft reports to the point that he can play shortstop at an average level, second base likely at above average, and projects as a solid utility guy. The bat is at least above-average potential and there’s solid raw power in the barrel. Shewmake is quickly proving to be a good find by the scouting department.

The majority of the rest of the top 10 is depth-type talent from the college ranks. Kasey Kalich has relief potential and Ricky DeVito has received favorable reports but, otherwise, the Braves appeared to save their bullets for the later rounds. Two notable exceptions are Michael Harris in the third round and Stephen Paolini in the fifth, two prep outfield products with across-the-board tools that could move up the Braves list quickly with more pro reps. It wouldn’t be a surprise if both make the system top 10 within a year or two.

Aside from Langeliers, Shewmake, Harris and Paolini, the Braves are hanging their 2019 draft hat on the ceiling types that could develop into impact prospects, depth, or fade out in A-ball. The volatility in this group is extreme, but the payoff could be big if one or two hit their ceilings.

The most notable name is Bryce Ball, who is already garnering national attention despite being a 24th-round pick just last June. The massive first baseman has 70 raw power and taps into it in-game with a strong feel to hit for his size and profile. He’s already proving to be a huge steal for the scouting department as a legitimate first base prospect and should be one of the system’s top names soon.

Vaughn Grissom could prove to be a name to remember. The lengthy shortstop likely moves to third as he fills out his projectable frame, but he profiles as a slugger with a whippy swing, developing strength and a feel for the barrel. The Braves went all in on Grissom as an overslot 11th-rounder.

Similarly, Atlanta liked what it saw in the 13th and 14th rounds with Tyler Owens and Jared Johnson. Owens is a smaller right-hander that profiles as a reliever down the road, but his stuff pops. Johnson is a big, arm-strength righty with an array of possibilities for his future. Joey Estes and Alec Barger are two more arm-strength guys to remember in the first 25 rounds.

Within that same round range, Kadon Morton and Mahki Backstrom are ceiling sluggers with power profiles. They’ll need to show they can hit, but the tools are there to become ranked prospects quickly.

Beyond the 25th round, one arm-strength guy, Justin Yeager, has received some attention for velo.

Overall, the class currently lacks that profile with an immense ceiling. Langeliers is quickly developing into a solid everyday catcher, which offers a lot of value. Shewmake has a major league bat, Ball has tons of power, Harris, Paolini and Grissom are toolsy guys with potential everyday futures if they hit their ceilings.

But, by investing heavily in the later rounds, the Braves went with numbers. This strategy could help infuse the lower levels with talent that’s sorely needed. It’s on player development to help make that happen from here.